Abstract
This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China’s CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995–2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.
Highlights
Global climate change—global warming—constitutes one of the most important issues to face human beings in the 21st century [1]
Most notably carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the combustion of fossil fuel, are the main influencing factor of global warming which is a matter of global consensus and, since CO2 emissions are closely related to socioeconomic development, climate change has gone from being an issue for pure
Since the goal of this study is to find out the optimal development model for china’s socioeconomic sustainable development and a reduction in CO2 emissions
Summary
Global climate change—global warming—constitutes one of the most important issues to face human beings in the 21st century [1]. Most notably carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the combustion of fossil fuel, are the main influencing factor of global warming which is a matter of global consensus and, since CO2 emissions are closely related to socioeconomic development, climate change has gone from being an issue for pure. Locating the key influencing factors of CO2 emissions, in order to effectively curb these emissions, is an increasingly important task, especially for China, the world’s largest developing country [3]. It is vitally important that an optimal development model be identified which has the capacity to enable China to reduce CO2 emissions while maintaining economic growth. It is generally recognised that energy consumption is the key impact factor of CO2 emissions; in order to realise CO2 emissions reduction targets, though, we need to examine other important influencing factors in relation to CO2 emissions. The following questions are critical to China’s sustainable development: How does the scale of the population, the economic level, energy intensity, and the level of urbanization affect CO2 emissions? Do CO2 emissions continue to growth rapidly? Modelling and forecasting China’s CO2 emissions would allow us to determine the optimal development model for future socioeconomic development
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