Abstract
Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960–2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960–1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981–2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.
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