Spatiotemporal Changes in Frost-Free Season and Its Influence on Spring Wheat Potential Yield on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1978 to 2017

Abstract

Accurately assessing the variation in the frost-free season (FFS) can provide decision support for improving agricultural adaptability and reducing frost harm; however, related studies were inadequate in terms of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). This study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in the first frost day in autumn (FFA), last frost day in spring (LFS), FFS length and effective accumulated temperature (EAT) during the 1978-2017 period, and their influences on spring wheat potential yield on the QTP, based on daily climatic data and the methodology of Sen's slope and correlation analysis. The results showed that the annual average FFA and LFS occurred later and earlier from northwest to southeast, respectively, and both the FFS length and EAT increased. From 1978 to 2017, the average regional FFA and LFS were delayed and advanced at rates of 2.2 and 3.4 days per decade, and the FFS and EAT increased by 5.6 days and 102.7 °C·d per decade, respectively. Spatially, the increase rate of FFS length ranged from 2.8 to 11.2 days per decade throughout the QTP, and it was observed to be larger in northern Qinghai, central Tibet and Yunnan, and smaller mainly in eastern Sichuan and southern Tibet. Correspondingly, the increase rate for EAT ranged from 16.2 to 173.3 °C·d per decade and generally showed a downward trend from north to south. For a one-day increase in the FFS period, the spring wheat potential yield would decrease by 17.4 and 9.0 kg/ha in altitude ranges of <2000 m and 2000-3000 m, but decrease by 24.9 and 66.5 kg/ha in the ranges of 3000-4000 m and >4000 m, respectively. Future studies should be focused on exploring the influence of multiple climatic factors on crop production using experimental field data and model technologies to provide policy suggestions.