Abstract
Fire-induced forest loss has substantially increased worldwide over the last decade. In China, the connection between forest loss and frequent fires on a national scale remains largely unexplored. In this study, we used a data set for a time-series of forest loss from the Global Forest Watch and for a MODIS-derived burned area for 2003–2015 to ascertain variations in forest loss and to explore its relationship with forest fires (represented by burned areas) at the country- and forest-zone levels. We quantified trends in forest loss during 2003–2015 using linear regression analysis and assessed the relation between forest loss and burned areas using Spearman’s correlation. Forest loss increased significantly (264.8 km2 a−1; R2 = 0.54, p < 0.01) throughout China, with an average annual increase of 11.4% during 2003–2015. However, the forest loss trend had extensive spatial heterogeneity. Forest loss increased mainly in the subtropical evergreen broadleaf forest zone (315.0 km2 a−1; R2 = 0.69, p < 0.01) and tropical rainforest zone (38.8 km2 a−1; R2 = 0.66, p < 0.01), but the loss of forest decreased in the cold temperate deciduous coniferous forest zone (− 70.8 km2 year−1; R2 = 0.75, p < 0.01) and the temperate deciduous mixed broadleaf and coniferous forest zone (− 14.4 km2 a−1; R2 = 0.45, p < 0.05). We found that 1.0% of China’s area had a significant positive correlation (r ≥ 0.55, p < 0.05) with burned areas and 0.3% had a significant negative correlation (r ≤ − 0.55, p < 0.05). In particular, forest loss had a significant positive relationship with the burned area in the cold temperate deciduous coniferous forest zone (16.9% of the lands) and the subtropical evergreen broadleaf forest zone (7.8%). These results provide a basis for future predictions of fire-induced forest loss in China.
Highlights
Forests play a vital role in the maintenance of the Earth’s ecological balance and mitigation of climate change (Bonan 2008), but forest loss is widespread in various countries (Hansen et al 2013; Da Ponte et al 2017; Harris et al 2017)
In this study, we focused on the role of fire in shaping spatiotemporal patterns of forest loss, which may help to elucidate the vulnerability of forests to fire and their resilience after a fire event (Tepley et al 2017)
Average regression slope values for all grid cells was 0.1 km2, with the largest rate of increase in annual forest loss having a slope of 4.5 km2, and the largest rate of decrease a slope of 9.5 km2 (Fig. 3)
Summary
Forests play a vital role in the maintenance of the Earth’s ecological balance and mitigation of climate change (Bonan 2008), but forest loss is widespread in various countries (Hansen et al 2013; Da Ponte et al 2017; Harris et al 2017). Studies have suggested that fire frequency and the area burned could substantially increase with the prolonged growing seasons predicted with warming climates (Liu et al 2010; Wotton et al 2010; Abatzoglou and Williams 2016). Such altered fire regimes will likely increase forest loss because the effects of fires will be amplified in warmer, drier climates (Stephens et al 2013; Brando et al 2014). In this study, we focused on the role of fire in shaping spatiotemporal patterns of forest loss, which may help to elucidate the vulnerability of forests to fire and their resilience after a fire event (Tepley et al 2017)
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