Spatiotemporal changes and background atmospheric factors associated with forest fires in Turkiye.

Son yıllarda etkisini giderek artıran küresel iklim değişikliği, artık insanlığın önlem alması ve uyum çabalarını artırması gereken bir problem haline gelmiştir. Daha uzun süre maruz kalınan sıcak hava dalgaları, sıcak hava dalgaları ile birlikte sıklığı giderek artan orman yangınları, kuraklık, şiddetli yağışlar, sel ve heyelan olayları iklimsel parametrelerdeki farklılaşmaların en belirgin göstergeleridir. İklim değişikliğinin Dünya’nın farklı alanlarında farklı sonuçları ortaya çıksa da, Türkiye’nin içinde bulunduğu Akdeniz Havzası bu değişikliklerden en fazla etkilenmesi beklenen sahalardandır. Türkiye'nin sıcaklık ve yağış iklim değişkenleri üzerine gelecek öngörüsü sunmak ve olası farklılaşmaları belirlemek çalışmanın amacını oluşturmaktadır. Bilimsel kuruluşlar tarafından geliştirilen modeller ve uygulanan emisyon senaryoları, gelecekte yaşanabilecek olası değişikliklerin tahmini için önemli metotlardır. Araştırmada Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projesi kapsamında yer alan modellere ve senaryolara ait çoklu model ortalaması kullanılmıştır. Analizlere dahil edilen emisyon senaryoları RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5’tir. Çalışmaya ait analizler Google Earth Engine bulut işletim sistemi ile gerçekleştirilmiş ve ArcGIS 10.4 programı ile haritalanmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda 2005-2040 döneminde Türkiye, bugünkü ortalamalara göre daha sıcak günler ile karşı karşıya kalacaktır. Maksimum sıcaklık ortalamalarındaki artış trendi daha kuvvetlidir. Akdeniz kıyılarında görülen iklim şartları ilerleyen yıllarda etki sahasını Ege ve Marmara bölgelerine doğru genişletecektir. Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi’nde minimum sıcaklık ortalamalarında daha kuvvetli artışlar yaşanacaktır. Yağış miktarlarında Akdeniz-Ege kıyıları ve iç bölgelerde azalma, Doğu Karadeniz kıyılarında kısmen artışlar görülecektir. Genel olarak bütün Türkiye arazisinin ortalama yağışı dikkate alındığında, pozitif ya da negatif yönde bir eğilim mevcut değildir.

Switzerland is not a place commonly associated with forest fires, unlike many areas of the nearby Mediterranean Basin. However, in this Alpine country, forest fires occur every year and destroy forests that fulfil various functions, the most socially and economically important of which is protection from natural hazards. Canton Ticino is the most affected by forest fires. The protective function is of vital importance for local communities. Most of Ticino's population lives in valley bottoms, where most transportation infrastructures are built, and without forests these are vulnerable to mass flows. In Ticino, forest fires occur mostly during the winter/spring season when dry conditions occur due to low precipitation and strong Foehn events. At this time, deciduous trees have shed their leaves and there is an important seasonal accumulation of dry litter on the forest floor. Fuel load has also increased over recent decades due to the abandonment, since about 1960, of traditional agro-forestry activities that removed dead wood, dry leaves and forage grass from the forest. Fuel in the forest is particularly flammable during the dry winter and leads to very high fire risks. Climate change has contributed to increasingly fire-prone conditions over the past decades and may also have had an effect on forest composition. Most Ticinese forest fires are anthropogenically triggered and negligence is the primary cause of fires. The only natural cause of fire is lightning, which affects forests particularly during summer, when heavy storms occur. This dissertation aimed at gaining a better scientific understanding of the interactions between landscapes, humans and forest fires in the context of climate change, in order to prescribe recommendations to achieve forest fire prevention and diminish fire related risks. We focused on the mechanisms leading to forest fires and adopted an integrated approach, which necessitated the use of a variety of methods: i) climate trend analyses, ii) flammability tests using a standardised ignition apparatus and a thermo-gravimetric analyser, iii) qualitative social science methods using focus groups and semi-structured interview techniques, iv) quantitative social science methods by means of a questionnaire. The results suggest that climate has changed in recent decades with more frequent and intense fire-prone conditions. Minimum and maximum temperatures have both increased significantly and relative humidity has decreased significantly for all daily measures during fire season. The present study suggests that fire-prone conditions are likely to become even more acute. Climate also has an important impact on the composition of the forests and the state of vegetation, as well as the condition of the fuel load. The most flammable species (Castanea sativa and some laurophyllous species) tend to occur near human settlements and this is of importance for management. Some of these species are expected to increase due to climate change. People involved with the forest fire prevention system perceived the actual fire policy as generally well working and well planned, and they perceive preparedness as strong, although discussions showed that the prevention of accidental fires is not addressed by the current fire policy. Effective prevention requires accurate information about the social aspects of forest fires, which until now has not been available in Ticino. Mechanisms leading to fires are not very well understood by locals, although many people identify correctly some technical aspects of forest fires. Depth of understanding is related to geography, gender, age, profession, marital status, income and life-style. Differences between these socio-demographic groups and geographical patterns suggest that prevention needs to be better targeted and that the population cannot be treated as a homogeneous entity. We conclude the dissertation with a series of recommendations for local authorities and people involved in the forest fire policy setting. These recommendations concern climate, vegetation flammability and forest fire prevention in Ticino.

Forest fires are emitting substantial amounts of greenhouse gases and particulate matter into the atmosphere than assumed in state climate targets. It can play an important role in combustible environments, such as shrublands, grasslands, and forests, and contribute to climate change. Thus, forest fire, and climate change is intertwined concepts. As vegetation burns, release the carbon stored within them. This is the main reason why large-scale forest fires release atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and hence, are responsible for increasing the rate of climate change to a great extent. It is extremely significant to measure the contribution of global forest fire and emissions trends of greenhouse gases. In this context, continental-scale carbon emissions assessments were primarily attempted using ground-based datasets for forest ecosystem fires. Considerable research has been published employing remote sensing data from coast to coast. While ground-based data are valuable, they have some restrictions that can be overcome by remote sensing. Ground-based fire data are primarily limited to the total burned area, with their completeness changing yearly with the location. Remote sensing can provide additional spatio-temporal fire information to improve fire emission estimates. In this paper, the factors driving forest fire, with a brief discussion on the triangular relationship between fire, land degradation, and climate change, the role of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), machine learning (ML), and a critical overview of state-of-the-art global climate change are presented.

This manuscript assesses whether biomass burning in North Africa could affect the heat budget of the Mediterranean region. The principal biomass burning activities in North Africa are forest and maquis fires, burning of agricultural wastes, and the domestic use of firewood. In the Mediterranean zones of the five North African nations, forest fires emit 1.33 Gg yr−1 of black carbon to the atmosphere; burning of agricultural wastes, 7.27 Gg yr−1, and burning of fuelwood, 5.16 Gg ye−1. The working model calculates maximum atmospheric black carbon emissions during August, September, and October as a result of forest fires and burning of agricultural residues. The atmospheric loading of North African black carbon from the estimated burning activities ranges between 0.01 and 0.05 µg BC m−3. This estimated black carbon loading is low compared to observations of the western Mediterranean aerosol, which suggests that the European continent, rather than North Africa, is the likely source region for black carbon in the Mediterranean aerosol. While North African biomass burning may be insignificant on a global scale, the emitted particulates could potentially affect the Mediterranean climate. From estimates of Saharan dust, black carbon, and biomass burning aerosols transported to the north over the Mediterranean Sea, I have calculated the relative optical depths of these three categories of particulates. The optical depth of summed black carbon and biomass burning aerosols is only seven percent that of Saharan dust. Thus, North African biomass burning particulates cause a small impact on the Mediterranean climate and heat budget compared to Saharan dust particles.Key Wordsbiomass burningblack carbonSaharan dustNorth Africasiroccoatmospheric emissionsemission factorsclimate changeoptical depth

Large-scale, frequent forest fires have a detrimental effect on the environment, the quality of the air, and human health. In the present study, from 2001 to 2020, March (1,857.5 counts/month) and April (922.8 counts/month) saw around 70% of the region's annual forest fires. Unusually high numbers of forest fires have been reported in some years, including 2009, 2012, and 2017. A thorough investigation is conducted into the contribution of numerous climate extremes and persistently rising temperatures to the rise in forest fire activity over central India. Forest fire activity doubled and tripled during the non-fire (July–January) and forest fire (February–June) seasons, respectively, over the warmer period from 2006 to 2020. A severe heat wave, an unusual drought, and an exceptionally powerful El Nino occurred in central India between 2015 JASONDJ and 2018 FMAMJ. These events are thought to have contributed to an upsurge in forest fires. The quinquennial spatiotemporal changes in forest fire characteristics, including average fire intensity and fire count density, were also evaluated. Significantly high soil temperature, low soil moisture content, poor evapotranspiration, and low normalized difference vegetation index are statistically associated with high near-surface air temperature and low precipitation during FMAMJ. This makes the climate much drier, which encourages a lot of forest fires in the Central Indian region.

In 2019, the southern region of Eastern Siberia (located between 45° N and 60° N) experienced heavy floods, while the northern region (between 60° N and 75° N) saw intense forest fires that lasted for almost the entire summer, from 25 June to 12 August. To investigate the causes of these natural disasters, we analyzed the large-scale features of atmospheric circulation, specifically the Rossby wave breaking and atmospheric blocking events. In the summer of 2019, two types of Rossby wave breaking were observed: a cyclonic type, with a wave breaking over Siberia from the east (110° E–115° E), and an anticyclonic type, with a wave breaking over Siberia from the west (75° E–90° E). The sequence of the Rossby wave breaking and extreme weather events in summer, 2019 are as follows: 24–26 June (cyclonic type, extreme precipitation, flood), 28–29 June and 1–2 July (anticyclonic type, forest fires), 14–17 July (both types of breaking, forest fires), 25–28 July (cyclonic type, extreme precipitation, flood), 2 and 7 August (anticyclonic type, forest fires). Rossby wave breaking occurred three times, resulting in the formation and maintenance of atmospheric blocking over Eastern Siberia: 26 June–3 July, 12–21 July and 4–10 August. In general, the scenario of the summer events was as follows: cyclonic Rossby wave breaking over the southern part of Eastern Siberia (45° N–60° N) caused extreme precipitation (floods) and led to low gradients of potential vorticity and potential temperature in the west and east of Lake Baikal. The increased wave activity flux from the Europe–North Atlantic sector caused the anticyclonic-type Rossby wave breaking to occur west of the area of a low potential vorticity gradient and north of 60° N. This, in turn, contributed to the maintenance of blocking anticyclones in the north of Eastern Siberia, which led to the intensification and expansion of the area of forest fires. These events were preceded by an increase in the amplitude of the quasi-stationary wave structure over the North Atlantic and Europe during the first half of June.

Forest fires can occur for a variety of reasons and spread rapidly. Therefore, this is a major environmental problem. In Turkey, especially in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions, 12 million hectares are at risk of forest fires. Risk areas in forest fires are places where fires can easily start and spread rapidly to other areas. Nature is difficult to control. In this context, this study addresses the problem of identifying areas with high fire risk in Turkey. Especially Balıkesir province is a touristic place, has a large forest area, high plant diversity and is an agricultural region. For this reason, 20 districts of Balıkesir were identified as alternatives. These are Bandirma, Edremit, Dursunbey, Susurluk, Manyas, Burhaniye, Ayvalik, Havran, Gönen, Kepsut, Erdek, Marmara Island, Altieylül, Karesi, İvrindi, Savastepe, Bigadic, Sindirgi, Gömec, Balya. Due to the high probability of fire in these districts, proposing a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model is very valuable to obtain convincing results. For this reason, Pythagorean Fuzzy Sets (PFS) have been used in many applications in the literature, which offer a broad evaluation scale to the decision maker, and the combination of AHP-TOPSIS has been applied. In addition, PFS has been used for the first time in order to model uncertainties more effectively in risk assessment and management of forest fires. The weights of the criteria causing forest fires were calculated by Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP method. From this method, air temperature ranks first with a ratio of 0.153. The second rank is humidity. Therefore, low humidity and air temperature significantly affect the frequency and severity of forest fires by reducing the water content of vegetation, increasing the ignition potential and favoring the rate of fire spread. Using these weights, the Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS method was used to rank the districts at risk of forest fires. Edremit is ranked first. The Edremit district is the most sensitive region due to high temperatures and low humidity in summer. In addition, 32 different endemic plant species in the Kaz Mountains increase the area's ecological importance. Therefore, it is of great importance to develop effective strategies to prevent forest fires in the Edremit district. Sensitivity analysis was applied to test the significance of the result.

Recurrent and large forest fires negatively impact ecosystem, air quality, and human health. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer fire product is used to identify forest fires over central India domain, an extremely fire prone region. The study finds that from 2001 to 2020, ∼70% of yearly forest fires over the region occurred during March (1,857.5 counts/month) and April (922.8 counts/month). Some years such as 2009, 2012, and 2017 show anomalously high forest fires. The role of persistent warmer temperatures and multiple climate extremes in increasing forest fire activity over central India is comprehensively investigated. Warmer period from 2006 to 2020 showed doubling and tripling of forest fire activity during forest fire (February–June; FMAMJ) and non‐fire (July–January; JASONDJ) seasons, respectively. From 2015 JASONDJ to 2018 FMAMJ, central India experienced a severe heatwave, a rare drought and an extremely strong El Niño, the combined effect of which is linked to increased forest fires. Further, the study assesses quinquennial spatiotemporal changes in forest fire characteristics such as fire count density and average fire intensity. Deciduous forests of Jagdalpur‐Gadchiroli Range and Indravati National Park in Chhattisgarh state are particularly fire prone (>61 fire counts/grid) during FMAMJ and many forest fires are of high intensity (>45 MW). Statistical associations link high near surface air temperature and low precipitation during FMAMJ to significantly high soil temperature, low soil moisture content, low evapotranspiration and low normalized difference vegetation index. This creates a significantly drier environment, conducive for high forest fire activity in the region.

BackgroundBecause of climate and forest vegetation, Turkey has regions (particularly the Mediterranean and Aegean regions) that are vulnerable to forest fires. Approximately 2000 forest fires have occurred every year for the last 20 years, with at least 48% of them caused by humans. This percentage increases to 71% when the rates of fires of unknown causes are included. In this study, legislation on Turkish forest fires was analyzed based on the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO’s) guide, “Forest Fires and the Law.” The guide was prepared by expert lawyers and addresses the basic topics of definitions; institutional setup and interinstitutional coordination planning, monitoring, and assessment; prevention and preparedness; detection and early warning and suppression; participatory and community-based approaches to fire management; fire use; rehabilitation; and law enforcement. The objective of this study was to reveal the current status of Turkish forestry legislation and its practices based on the FAO guide.ResultsAccording to our analysis, Turkish forestry legislation has followed the FAO criteria 78.1% of the time. It is clear that effective regulations exist, with the Turkish Constitution being the foremost touchstone. The results illustrate that, no matter how strong the legislation is, a deficiency in administrative measures and a lack of public awareness make combating forest fires unsuccessful.ConclusionsThe areas that need to be improved have been determined to be definitions, participatory and community-based approaches to fire management, and creating a fire line. A focus on public participation and the social approach is needed.

Observations at Lampedusa show that long‐lasting intense episodes of fine (Ångström exponent, α, > 1.5) light absorbing aerosol occurred in the central Mediterranean during summer 2003, along with exceptionally hot and dry conditions throughout continental Europe and the Mediterranean basin. The absorbing particles appear to be produced mostly by large‐scale intense forest fires in southern Europe. In this paper Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations are used to determine the spatial and temporal extent of the summer 2003 forest fire aerosol episode over the Mediterranean sea. MODIS observations are first compared to measurements obtained with a multifilter rotating shadowband radiometer, MFRSR, at Lampedusa in July and August 2003. Values of the optical depth, τ, at 550 nm show a good agreement (linear correlation coefficient of 0.67, slope of 0.85). Ångström exponents retrieved from MODIS are larger than those from MFRSR at low values of α and are smaller than those from MFRSR at high values of α. In addition to Lampedusa, five other open sea locations representative of different sectors of the Mediterranean basin were chosen to study the evolution of the aerosol properties during July and August 2003. MODIS observations reveal that particles displaying α > 1.3 and relatively large aerosol optical depth are present at four out of the six locations for an extended period (11–16 days) in August. Trajectories ending at the four locations show that in all cases, air masses overpass active fires in southern Europe. MODIS observations between 2000 and 2004 show that the summer 2003 forest fire aerosol episode was the longest lasting and covered the largest area. Normally, summertime episodes lasted about 4–6 days and only covered two locations at a time. The aerosol optical properties observed at Lampedusa are used as input to a radiative transfer model to estimate the absorbing aerosol radiative effects. Aerosol radiative forcing in the 300–800 nm range and atmospheric heating rates are calculated assuming different aerosol vertical distributions. It is estimated that forest fire particles produce an increase in heating rate as large as 2.8 K/day at 20° solar zenith angle at the altitude of the aerosol layer. This large heating may have increased the atmospheric stability that helped to maintain the anomalously hot and dry conditions during summer 2003.

The purpose of this study is to understand the characteristics of the spatial distribution of forest fire occurrences with the local indicators of temporal burstiness in Korea. Forest fire damage data were produced in the form of areas by combining the forest fire damage ledger information with VIIRS-based forest fire occurrence data. Then, detrended fluctuation analysis and the local indicator of temporal burstiness were applied. In the results, the forest fire occurrence follows a self-organized criticality mechanism, and the temporal irregularities of fire occurrences exist. When the forest fire occurrence time series in Gyeonggi-do Province, which had the highest value of the local indicator of temporal burstiness, was checked, it was found that the frequency of forest fires was increasing at intervals of about 10 years. In addition, when the frequencies of forest fires and the spatial distribution of the local indicators of forest fire occurrences were compared, it was found that there were spatial differences in the occurrence of forest fires. This study is meaningful in that it analyzed the time series characteristics of the distribution of forest fires in Korea to understand that forest fire occurrences have long-term temporal correlations and identified areas where the temporal irregularities of forest fire occurrences are remarkable with the local indicators of temporal burstiness.

<p>Wildfires have become an imminent threat to ecosystems, consequently leading to economic loss and generating negative impacts on population health. Considering IPCC’s projection of a significant increase in the frequency of these events, it is important to understand which conditions lead to a fire intensification, as recently happened in California, Australia, and Brazilian Pantanal. Some of the greatest wildfires registered in North America and in Europe occurred in concomitance to intense heat waves and drought events. The lack of a comprehensive understanding of the physical mechanisms associated with extreme wildfire events in the Amazon rainforest, underlines the current inability to properly prevent them. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the role of extreme temperature events, such as heat waves (HW), in forest fires behaviour in the Brazilian Amazon during extreme drought years. The relationship between wildfires and HWs was hereby analysed during both dry and wet years in the Amazon Forest, in order to understand the association between different time and spatial scale events in forest fires magnitude. Accordingly, CPC/NOAA reanalysis data of daily maximum temperature between 1979 and 2019 were used as input to determine HW events in a multi-method global heatwave and warm-spell data record and analysis toolbox<sup>1</sup>. A standard HW definition was applied, where an event corresponds to at least three consecutive days in which the maximum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile for that day. Wildfire magnitude analyses were calculated through active fire (AF) and fire radiative power (FRP) data from MODIS C6 sensor, obtained at FIRMS/NASA for the comprehended period between 2003 and 2019. Spatial intensity of HW was classified and then confronted with precipitation anomaly in both normal and dry years. Also, statistical comparison of fire magnitude (i.e., AF and FRP) in HW and non heat wave (NHW) days was analysed to measure extreme temperature events impacts in wildfire. Results showed a significant increasing trend in HW occurrences in recent decades, with peaks in known drier years. An increase of AF counting and fire intensity was noticed during HW events. This latter effect appears even when the HW occurs during extremely dry seasons, such as happened at the Amazon Forest in 2005, 2010 and 2015. Extreme values of AF and FRP were a quarter higher in 2005, doubled in 2010 and tripled in 2015 at HW days when compared to NHW days.</p><p> </p><p>References </p><p>[1] Raei, E., Nikoo, M., AghaKouchak, A. et al. GHWR, a multi-method global heatwave and warm-spell record and toolbox. Sci Data 5, 180206 (2018).</p><p>Acknowledgements</p><p>This study was supported by FAPERJ project number E26/202.714/2019. L. N. was supported by CNPq PIBIC  number 160099/2021-8.</p>

One of the important problems created by climate change is forest fires. Forest fires occur due to both natural and anthropogenic causes. Forest fires, which occur with the effects of climate change such as an increase in temperature, drought, heat waves, and climatic conditions, are increasing gradually. Acute and chronic effects caused by forest fires cause significant life changes. As a result of the fire, not only forests are damaged, but also flora, wildlife, water resources, soil, climate, areas used by people for recreational purposes, and settlements near and around forested areas. As a result, changes such as increases in temperature, pollution, epidemics, drought, food shortage, and forest fires, affect mental and physical health. While exposure to forest fires creates a direct traumatic effect; indirectly, it affects mental health for a number of social, political and economic reasons such as poverty, unemployment and housing. Forest fires also create an environmental change. This environmental change creates a sense of loss, the sense of belonging is lost, it cannot connect with the new environment, it becomes difficult to adapt and causes distress.Uncertainty about the future, helplessness, stress, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder and depression are common psychological problems due to climate change. It defines some new mental health concepts as the consequences of climate change affect mental health. "Solastalgia" is one pf these new concepts. Solastalgia is defined as a term that expresses the pain and distress caused by the loss of the thing/things that people find solace and environmental change. Solastalgia is a necessary concept for mental health professionals to understand the links between ecosystem health and human health, especially the cumulative effects of climatic and environmental change on mental, emotional and spiritual health.

Extreme weather events are experienced more frequently across the earth due to the effects of climate change. The high frequency of extreme weather events increases vulnerability in sensitive areas. In the Mediterranean Basin, which is one of the most sensitive areas, many countries have experienced wildfires in recent years. Turkey is one of the countries where forest fires occur frequently in the Mediterranean basin. Although the causes of the fire vary over the years, the problems caused by forest fires draw attention every year. Since 1990, there have been many forest fires across the country and the most areal losses caused by the Fires occurred in 1994, 2000 and 2008. The largest forest fires after these dates occurred in the summer of 2021. The area where Turkey is most sensitive to fire is the Mediterranean climate region. Most of the fires, especially in this area, occur in an unnatural way such as negligence-accident, unsolved and intentional. The control mechanism in the spatial expansion of fires mostly depends on atmospheric conditions. Within the scope of the study, it was aimed to draw attention to the atmospheric conditions during the period of wildfires in many parts of Turkey in the summer of 2021 for various reasons. According to the calculations, the air temperatures before the start of the fire in the provinces of Antalya and Muğla are above the long-term averages of the stations here. In addition, the effects of the heat wave were observed at many stations before the fire.

Soil erosion by water (WSE) is an environmental, economic, and sociological problem in the world. Nowadays, forest fires have triggered more WSE, especially in the Mediterranean basin. Therefore, the present study aims to determine the effect of forest fires on soil loss susceptibility in the Çınarpınar Forestry Enterprise, Turkey. The RUSLE model was used to determine soil loss. Two soil loss maps were generated for the actual situation (base scenario) and forest fire scenario. For the forest fire scenario, R, K, and LS factors in the RUSLE model were modified based on the forest fire severity index. Finally, two maps representing base and forest fire scenarios were compared. The actual mean soil loss was found as 5.34 t ha-1 year-1 in the Çınarpınar Forestry Enterprise while the mean soil loss was determined as 12.44 t ha-1 year-1 for the forest fire scenario. It was found that forest fires would increase soil loss by more than 2 times in the study area. Areas with very low soil loss susceptibility to forest fires constitute 41.97% of productive forests, while areas with very high, high, medium, and low soil loss susceptibility constitute 3.64%, 9.28%, 27.50%, and 17.61% of productive forests, respectively. It was also revealed that there is not always a linear relationship between fire severity and soil loss susceptibility under natural conditions. Consequently, it is hoped that this study will help decision-makers in the implementation of the multi-purpose approach, which aims to reduce the risk of both forest fire and soil loss.