Spatiotemporal Change of Air-Quality Patterns in Hubei Province—A Pre- to Post-COVID-19 Analysis Using Path Analysis and Regression

Abstract

Mitigation measures and control strategies relating to the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been widely applied in many countries to reduce the transmission of this pandemic disease. China was the first country to implement a strong lockdown policy to control COVID-19 when countries worldwide were struggling to manage COVID-19 cases. However, lockdown causes numerous changes to air-quality patterns due to the low amount of traffic and the decreased human mobility it results in. To study the impact of the strict control measures of the new COVID-19 epidemic on the air quality of Hubei in early 2020, the air-quality monitoring data of Hubei’s four cities, namely Huangshi, Yichang, Jingzhou, and Wuhan, from 2019 to 2021, specifically 1 January to 30 August, was examined to analyze the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution. All air-quality pollutants decreased during the active-COVID-19 period, with a maximum decrease of 26% observed in PM10, followed by 23% of PM2.5, and a minimum decrease of 5% observed in O3. Changes in air pollutants from 2017 to 2021 were also compared, and a decrease in all pollutants through to 2020 was found. The air-quality index (AQI) recorded an increase of 2% post-COVID-19, which shows that air quality will worsen in future, but it decreased by 22% during the active-COVID-19 period. A path analysis model was developed to further understand the relationship between the AQI and air-quality patterns. This path analysis shows a strong correlation between the AQI and PM10 and PM2.5, however its correlation with other air pollutants is weak. Regression analysis shows a similar pattern of there being a strong relationship between AQI and PM10 (r2 = 0.97) and PM2.5 (r2 = 0.93). Although the COVID-19 pandemic had numerous negative effects on human health and the global economy, it is likely that the reduction in air pollution and the significant improvement in ambient air quality due to lockdowns provided substantial short-term health benefits. The government must implement policies to control the environmental issues which are causing poor air quality in post-COVID-19.