Abstract
Land use land cover (LULC) transition analysis is a systematic approach that helps in understanding physical and human involvement in the natural environment and sustainable development. The study of the spatiotemporal shifting pattern of LULC, the simulation of future scenarios and the intensity analysis at the interval, category and transition levels provide a comprehensive prospect to determine current and future development scenarios. In this study, we used multitemporal remote sensing data from 1980–2020 with a 10-year interval, explanatory variables (Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, population, GDP, distance from roads, distance from the city center and distance from streams) and an integrated CA-ANN approach within the MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS to model the spatiotemporal change transition potential and future LULC simulation in the Greater Bay Area. The results indicate that physical and socioeconomic driving factors have significant impacts on the landscape patterns. Over the last four decades, the study area experienced rapid urban expansion (4.75% to 14.75%), resulting in the loss of forest (53.49% to 50.57%), cropland (21.85% to 16.04%) and grassland (13.89% to 12.05%). The projected results (2030–2050) also endorse the increasing trend in built-up area, forest, and water at the cost of substantial amounts of cropland and grassland.
Highlights
Landscape change is based on the natural ecosystem and the structure of human society
The Land use land cover (LULC) maps, area statistics and annual rate of change are shown in Figure 3 and
Spatiotemporal Change Analysis maps, statistics change are shown in Figure 3with and
Summary
Landscape change is based on the natural ecosystem and the structure of human society. Fast economic development and population growth results in rapid urbanization and land-use changes Human exploitation of the natural environment, such as urban expansion, fragmentation of agricultural land and green spaces, expressively disturbs the local environment [5]. Among these activities, rapid urban growth is considered the leading driver of cropland and green area losses [6], which may greatly influence climatic changes and human life [7,8]. The dynamics of socioeconomic development and industrialization have led to a drastic expansion of built-up areas in periurban regions Such an increase in impervious surfaces affects the urban environment [9]
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