Spatiotemporal behaviors of the ridership of a public transportation system during an epidemic outbreak: case of MERS in Seoul.

Abstract

During May and June 2015, an outbreak of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) occurred in Korea, which raised the fear of contagion throughout society and suppressed the use of public transportation systems. Exploring daily ridership data of the Seoul bus transportation system, along with the number of infected patients and search volume in web portals, we observe that ridership decreased abruptly while attention was heavily focused online. Then this temporal reduction recovered exponentially with a characteristic time of 3 weeks when newly confirmed cases began to decrease. We also find with the data of ranked keywords of web portals that areas with severely reduced ridership tended to cluster and spatiotemporal variations of such clusters were highly associated with general hospitals where MERS patients were treated. On the other hand, the spatial reduction in ridership relaxed algebraically with the distance from a general hospital while the outbreak was severe. We further probe the influence of the epidemic outbreak in the framework of linear response theory, which relates the responses to the epidemic outbreak (“perturbation”) with correlations in the absence of the perturbation. Indeed, the spatial correlation function of the ridership changes is observed to follow a power law, sharing the same exponent as the spatial relaxation of the response function. This new theoretical approach offers a useful tool for understanding responses of public transportation system to epidemic or accidental disasters.