Spatiotemporal Assessment and Meteorological Determinants of Atmospheric Drought in Agricultural Areas of East-Central Poland

Krzysztof Bartoszek,Alicja Węgrzyn,Alicja Baranowska,Łukasz Kukla,Barbara Skowera

doi:10.3390/agronomy11122405

Abstract

Atmospheric drought is an extremely important issue on a global, regional and local scale, especially in the context of climate change. The aim of the study was to assess the spatiotemporal variation of atmospheric (meteorological) drought in agricultural areas of east-central Poland, represented by the Lublin Voivodeship (Lublin region) in 1971–2015. Average monthly air temperatures and monthly precipitation totals recorded over the 45-year period at 25 weather stations were used in the study. The assessment of spatiotemporal variation in atmospheric drought in the study area was based on calculations of the aridity index. The analysis showed an increase in the severity of atmospheric drought in the Lublin region, with intensification of this phenomenon in the last two decades, especially in the warmer half of the year (April, June–August). The main cause of drought in the Lublin region was identified as a statistically significant increase in air temperature (on average, from 0.4 °C to 0.7 °C/10 years in April, July and August, and from 0.2 °C to 0.5 °C/10 years in June) together with the absence of changes in precipitation in the warmer half of the year. This may be linked to some increase in the frequency of high-pressure circulation types, both non-directional and advection from the south. Due to the worsening problem of drought in Poland in recent years, especially in agriculture, there is a need for further research on this subject and for solutions aimed at optimizing agricultural use of the productive environment.

Highlights

Global warming, climate change and the increased frequency of extreme weather phenomena, including drought, are among the greatest threats to the modern world [1,2,3].Agriculture is the sector of the economy that most acutely feels the effects of progressing climate change [4,5]
The paper presents the frequency of each class of aridity index A for the warmer half-year, i.e., the growing season, but the temperature and precipitation conditions of the colder half of the year were analysed as well, due to their importance for soil water resources at the start of the growing period
Analysis of the aridity index A showed an increase in the frequency of atmospheric drought in the Lublin region during the study period (1971–2015)

Summary

Introduction

Climate change and the increased frequency of extreme weather phenomena, including drought, are among the greatest threats to the modern world [1,2,3].Agriculture is the sector of the economy that most acutely feels the effects of progressing climate change [4,5]. The increasingly frequent periods of water shortage resulting from drought pose a particular threat to agriculture and the efficiency of agricultural production [6,7]. This issue is especially important in the context of ensuring global food security [8]. According to Wilhite [9], on a global scale, about one-fifth of damage caused by natural disasters can be ascribed to droughts, which have negative effects on agriculture and the ecosystem, but on society and the economy as well [4]. Droughts are the cause of malnutrition, hunger, diseases and death, depopulation and migration [2,10,11]

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