Spatiotemporal analysis of rainfed cereal yields across the eastern high plateaus of Algeria: an exploratory investigation of the effects of weather factors

Abstract

In this study, the climatic determinants of cereal yield differentials in the eastern high plateaus of Algeria were explored and analyzed. Using panel data for five regions from the period 2000–2016, we analyzed the relationships between crop yield and two climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) for three major Algerian rainfed cereals: durum wheat, common wheat, and barley. The Mann–Kendall test was applied to assess the significance and magnitude of yield trends, and pooled OLS regression was employed to analyze the determinants of the variability in cereal yields. Results showed that the rainfed cereal yields in this zone are highly variable; that the minimum temperature and average annual precipitation strongly influence cereal yield differentials, with an observed cumulative (lagged) effect; and that the maximum temperature has no direct (or lagged) effect (i.e., its effect on the yield is not statistically significant). The findings of this study also suggest that, despite significant regional differences in semiarid environments, advances in the production technology used in cereal farming have had consistent effects on the yield stability—increasing yields of common wheat but barely influencing yields of durum wheat and barley. These are important findings for the rainfed cereal sector of Algerian dryland agriculture, as they permit a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on Algerian agriculture.