Spatiotemporal analysis of land development in transitional China

Abstract

This study investigates three types of land development in China, land for cities and towns, stand-alone industrial sites, and space devoted to transportation. Relying on shift-share analysis, spatial filtering and geographically weighted regressions, we find that the spatial patterns and underlying determinants of China's construction boom vary across subcategories and periods. City and town land development follows the administrative hierarchy, as it is especially pronounced in provincial capitals and centrally administrated municipalities, and is largely dependent on urbanization, passenger transport, and fixed assets investment. The proliferation of stand-alone industrial areas is mainly driven by the expansion of foreign direct investment, industrial adjustment, and the capacity of freight transport. Transportation land development is determined by the development of railway and highway systems as well as local economic development. Temporally, our results suggest that land development and its agglomeration accelerated from 1998 to 2002 to 2003–2008. Also, globalization had more influence during 1998–2002, whereas the role of decentralization and marketization became more significant in the period of 2003–2008.