Abstract
Food security for the growing global population is closely associated with the variations in agricultural yield at the regional scale. Based on this perspective, the current study was designed to determine the impacts of drought on wheat production in the Punjab province, which is the agricultural hub of Pakistan. Wheat is a staple food in Pakistan, and Punjab provides a major contribution to the total wheat production of the country. Therefore, Punjab is vital to scientific concerns regarding the evaluation of climatic impacts on the annual wheat yield. The current study offers a better understanding of the drought impacts on wheat in Punjab during 2001–2019. The Standardized Precipitation Index was used to assess the impact of drought stress on the wheat yield. Its temporal evolution indicates the recurrent appearance of drought episodes during the wheat cropping season. Furthermore, meteorological drought was noticed in all study years except for 2019. The results reveal that 2002 experienced severe drought conditions. The frequency of drought was calculated as 29% for SPI-12. The relationships between soil moisture, the Standardized Yield Residual Series (SYRS), and the detrended SPI at lags of 1–12 months indicate that zones 1 and 2 are more sensitive to dry conditions. The results presented in this study provide evidence to authorities responsible for developing policies in the context of natural hazards, particularly droughts, and for preparing drought mitigation plans and implementing the adaptation strategies to minimize the effects of drought on wheat yields.
Highlights
Drought has far-reaching effects on the environment and many aspects of society around the world [1]
The present study explored the frequency and spatiotemporal evolution of drought during the cropping period of one of the major food crops, i.e., wheat, during 2001–2019, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), in all five zones of Punjab
The results revealed the occurrence of drought episodes during 2007–2019 in almost all the zones of Punjab
Summary
Drought has far-reaching effects on the environment and many aspects of society around the world [1]. The erratic phenomenon of drought is caused by two forcing functions, namely, climate change and anthropogenic activities [2]. Current climate changes have induced and accelerated hydrological extremes, including floods and droughts [3]. This has induced significant variations at the regional scale. The climate of Pakistan is more vulnerable to warmer conditions because of its geographical location, where the rise in average temperature is higher compared to that in the global temperature. The annual average drought rate is 40%, which increases to 60% in some parts of the country
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