Spatiotemporal analysis of burglary in multifamily housing in Fukuoka City, Japan

Abstract

Although previous studies have referred to the spatiotemporal patterns of burglaries called “repeat victimization” (RV) and “near repeat” (NR), only a few have explicitly dealt with multifamily housing, and none of them have distinguished among RV of a dwelling-unit, victimization of another unit in the same building, and NR in a nearby building. This work examined the spatiotemporal patterns of burglaries in multifamily housing in Fukuoka City, Japan, at both the building and dwelling-unit levels. The data were provided by the Fukuoka Prefectural Police of 8845 cases that occurred between 2005 and 2014. The number of burglary incidents in previously burgled multifamily buildings and in previously burgled dwelling units accounted for 31% and 8.4% of all incidents, respectively. The results of the building-level analysis showed NR patterns in nearby buildings, even after excluding victimization of other units in the same building, in a spatiotemporal range of 200 m and 60 days. The results of the dwelling-unit-level analysis verified a significantly high risk of RV of a unit in 160 days and around twice as high a risk of victimization of other units in the same building in almost 80 days. Thus, this study showed the risk of RV and NR in multifamily housing, which would contribute to the literature in that it expanded the scope of the RV/NR model in detached housing that has been proposed in previous studies. Finally, recommended measures against RV and NR of burglaries in the Japanese context and the research limitations are discussed.