Abstract
Tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) is an emerging pathogen affecting tomato-production systems in several countries, including Mexico. This situation involves challenges due to the negative impact on yield and the lack of disease-management measures. This work analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution of ToBRFV in commercial tomato greenhouses. The presence or absence of diseased plants was evaluated weekly, assigning a location in space (x, y). Temporal analysis consisted of fitting the incidence to the monomolecular, logistic, log-logistic, Gompertz, exponential, Weibull, and Richard models, evaluated using the Akaike information criterion, significance, correlation, coefficient of determination, and root mean square error. Spatial analysis consisted of determining spatial aggregation using the Moran, Fisher, and Lloyd indices. In addition, spatial distribution was assessed by sequence observations, point patterns using the inverse distance index, and analysis by SADIE distance indicators. Results indicated that the logistic models (log-logistic and logistic) best described the temporal progress of ToBRFV. This disease also had slightly aggregated patterns in the initial phase, highly aggregated in the exponential phase, and uniform in the deceleration and stationary phases. This study demonstrates that the spatial and temporal dynamics of ToBRFV have important implications for the monitoring, diagnosis, management, and risk prediction of this disease.
Highlights
Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is a plant native to tropical America, belonging to the Solanaceae family [1]
For the characterization of the epidemic caused by Tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV), five greenhouses ranging in area from 1 to 1.3 ha were selected in which different plant densities were established with different transplanting dates (Table 1)
All epidemics represented by the progress curves obtained in the five greenhouses had a sigmoidal shape, characteristic of logistic models, which described the dynamics of the behavior of the disease during the productive cycle of the crop (Figure 2A)
Summary
Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is a plant native to tropical America, belonging to the Solanaceae family [1]. This vegetable accounts for one of the most economically important global production systems. The main tomato-producing countries are China, the USA, India, and Turkey. It is currently spreading to new tomato-production areas, including in Mexico. This situation is of concern due to the absence of management measures, as this phytosanitary problem has negatively impacted various global production regions [7]
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