Spatiotemporal analyses of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in cattle farms in Chiang Mai and Lamphun, Thailand

Veerasak Punyapornwithaya,Chalutwan Sansamur,Kannika Na Lampang,Arisara Charoenpanyanet,Chaidate Inchaisri,Pakdee Sutthipankul,Orapun Arjkumpa

doi:10.1186/s12917-020-02392-6

Abstract

BackgroundFoot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and contagious febrile vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed livestock with high socio-economic consequences globally. In Thailand, FMD is endemic with 183 and 262 outbreaks occurring in the years 2015 and 2016, respectively. In this study, we aimed to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of FMD outbreaks among cattle in Chiang Mai and Lamphun provinces in the northern part of Thailand during the period of 2015–2016. A retrospective space-time scan statistic including a space-time permutation (STP) and the Poisson and Bernoulli models were applied in order to detect areas of high incidence of FMD.ResultsResults have shown that 9 and 8 clusters were identified by the STP model in 2015 and 2016, respectively, whereas 1 and 3 clusters were identified by the Poisson model, and 3 and 4 clusters were detected when the Bernoulli model was applied for the same time period. In 2015, the most likely clusters were observed in Chiang Mai and these had a minimum radius of 1.49 km and a maximum radius of 20 km. Outbreaks were clustered in the period between the months of May and October of 2015. The most likely clusters in 2016 were observed in central Lamphun based on the STP model and in the eastern area of Chiang Mai by the Poisson and Bernoulli models. The cluster size of the STP model (8.51 km) was smaller than those of the Poisson and Bernoulli models (> 20 km). The cluster periods in 2016 were approximately 7 months, while 4 months and 1 month were identified by the Poisson, Bernoulli and STP models respectively.ConclusionsThe application of three models provided more information for FMD outbreak epidemiology. The findings from this study suggest the use of three different space-time scan models for the investigation process of outbreaks along with the follow-up process to identify FMD outbreak clusters. Therefore, active prevention and control strategies should be implemented in the areas that are most susceptible to FMD outbreaks.

Highlights

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and contagious febrile vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed livestock with high socio-economic consequences globally
During the 2015 and 2016 period, 146 and 272 FMD cattle farms were identified as FMD outbreak farms by Department of Livestock Development (DLD) investigations
In 2015, the peak of the FMD outbreak occurred from July to October, while in 2016, there were 2 peaks of FMD outbreaks that were recorded from January to March and from June to November (Fig. 1)

Summary

Introduction

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and contagious febrile vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed livestock with high socio-economic consequences globally. Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals. FMD is considered one of the most important livestock diseases in the world [5] It has been classified as a multiple species disease and has the potential for rapid and extensive spread both within and between countries. It can cause severe socioeconomic impacts and poses a significant threat to public health consequences according to the World Organization for Animal Health [6]. Common strategies being enforced for the prevention and control of FMD include vaccination, quarantine measures and attempts to stamp out the disease [8,9,10]

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