Abstract
BackgroundBelow-normal availability of water for a considerable period of time induces occurrence of drought. This paper investigates the Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological drought under changing climate. The climate change was analyzed using delta based statistical downscaling approach of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in R software packages. The meteorological drought was assessed using the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI).ResultsThe result of climate change projections showed that the average annual minimum temperature will be increased by about 0.8–2.9 °C. The mean annual maximum temperature will be also increased by 0.9–3.75 °C. The rainfall projection generally showed an increasing trend, it exhibited an average annual increase of 3.5–13.4 % over the study area. The projected drought events reached its maximum severity indicated extreme drought in the years 2043, 2044, 2073, and 2074. The RDI value shows drought will occurred after 1–6 and 2–7 years under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios respectively over the study area. Almost more than 72 % of the current and future spatial coverage of drought in the study area will be affected by extreme drought, 22.3 % severely and 5.57 % also moderate drought.ConclusionsTherefore, the study helps to provide useful information for policy decision makers to implement different adaptation and mitigation measures of drought in the region.
Highlights
Below-normal availability of water for a considerable period of time induces occurrence of drought
The highest temperature was recorded in Raya Azebo and EndaMekoni district (4.2oC and 3.4 oC) in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 for both minimum and maximum temperatures respectively
Numerous investigation clearly shown that average annual minimum and maximum temperature are predictable to increase in the future (Araya et al 2015; Ashenafi 2014)
Summary
Below-normal availability of water for a considerable period of time induces occurrence of drought. This paper investigates the Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological drought under changing climate. Drought in Ethiopia is one of the main natural disasters throughout the human history (Gebrehiwot et al 2011). It has become a main concern in the northern highlands of the country in Tigray region where food security and environmental damages were commonly observed (Nicholson 2000). Kanellou et al (2008) and Loukas and Vasiliades (2004) argue that Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological drought study are important to understand the regional severity of drought to manage it effectively and to reduce the agricultural production losses and to protect the environment
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