Spatio-temporal variations of aerosol optical depth over Ukraine under the Russia-Ukraine war

Abstract

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has an impact on air quality in the contested region, but it is difficult to assess it during the war and to distinguish between weather conditions and anthropogenic impacts on air pollution. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) might be a way to indicate the regional air quality remotely. In this study, we analyze satellite-based MODIS Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) AOD products to compare monthly mean AOD values before and during the war. By examining the spatial-temporal distribution of AOD in 2022 and comparing it with a baseline period from 2012 to 2021, we aim to assess the impact of the conflict. Our analysis employs a time series algorithm that decomposes long-term trends and seasonal variations, enabling us to identify AOD changes associated with the war-induced artificial perturbations. Additionally, we utilize satellite-based tropospheric NO2 data and nighttime lighting data as auxiliary sources to support the analysis of abnormal AOD changes resulting from the war. Furthermore, four parameters from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements in the Kyiv site, including angstrom exponent (AE), single scattering albedo (SSA), refractive index (RI), fine mode fraction (FMF) were exclusively discussed to explore the possible changes of aerosol physical-optical properties over Ukraine during the war. Results showed that air quality in Ukraine has been affected by the war in contradictory ways at different levels. At the national level, atmospheric pollution has dropped across Ukraine due to a decrease in the sources of air pollution emissions as a result of the suppression of economic and agricultural activities. Meanwhile, atmospheric air quality has deteriorated at the local scale where war is intense due to the large amounts of air pollutants emitted by explosions. Specifically, a significant decrease in AOD of 22.46% compared to the baseline period was observed across Ukraine in January and February 2022 before the war. Additionally, there was a column density reduction of over 10% for tropospheric NO2 compared to the same period in the previous year. Following the outbreak of the war on February 24, significant increases in AOD were observed in March when compared to the baseline period. Eastern Ukraine experienced a significant increase of 40.14%, while northern Ukraine and central Ukraine saw rises of 34.15% and 45.78%, respectively. In April, a wider distribution of areas with significantly high AOD values across Ukraine was observed compared to March. In July, widespread areas with anomalous low AOD appeared in northern and western Ukraine, likely due to a decrease in post-harvest agricultural burning caused by the war. In August, anomalous high AOD areas were observed in central Ukraine, possibly attributed to continued Russian long-range strikes and a new round of bombardments.