Abstract
Water supply constraints are recognized as major factors affecting regional dryland wheat production, but the details of these constraints have yet to be fully explored. We performed an analysis of field experiments conducted in northern Chinese areas during 1950–2017. Dryland wheat yields increased from the 1950s through to the 2010s at a rate of 110 kg ha–1 year–1. Yields increased most in regions with relatively high precipitation during wheat growth stage. Mean yields were 128% higher in regions with >300 mm precipitation than in regions with <100 mm. Yields were the highest when mean temperatures during wheat growth stage were in the range 4–8 °C. Mean yields were 1756 kg ha–1 in regions with <200 mm evapotranspiration (ET), and 5544 kg ha–1 in regions with >600 mm ET. Water limitation on yields decreased from the 1950s to the 2010s as precipitation during wheat growth stage increased through the regions. Yield increased significantly and linearly over time during the study period, with increasing precipitation during wheat growth stage, and with increasing ET. Overall, yield loss resulting from water deficit decreased from the 1950s through to the 2010s as precipitation during wheat growth stage increased through the drylands of northern Chinese areas.
Highlights
Dryland makes an important contribution to global food security; 60% of food is from dryland without irrigation [1]
The documents included in our database were all on monocultured winter wheat and spring wheat sown under dryland conditions in northern Chinese areas
We evaluated the trends in and main driving factors of spatio-temporal variation in dryland wheat yield in northern Chinese areas
Summary
Dryland makes an important contribution to global food security; 60% of food is from dryland without irrigation [1]. The wheat yields are low and unstable in the region due to (i) limited water resources (iii) basic soil fertility, and (iv) in relatively low farming inputsagricultural [6]. In this management context, the following that poor are heterogeneously distributed space and time,. Chinese (iii) poor basic soil fertility, and (iv) relatively low farming inputs [6] In this context, the following areas through historical time, how variable were yields on geographical spatial scales, and questions are of considerable relevance: (i) how variable was the wheat yield in northern Chinese areas which factors account for(ii)temporal and spatial variability?. Determine the effects of water deficit on spatio-temporal variation in yield loss
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