Spatio-temporal variation and trends of long-term meteorological variables in Nigeria

Abstract

Natural environmental disasters in the developing countries of West Africa are at alarming rate which necessitate the investigation of long-term trend of rainfall and temperature. Current variation, trends of temperature, and rainfall across Nigeria were investigated using parametric and non-parametric statistical tools. Meteorological data obtained from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency in Lagos, Nigeria, from 1970 to 2010 were used for this analysis. Seasonal and annual trends of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall were carried out using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope methods. Long-term linear regression of these meteorological variables was analyzed across eighteen locations in the country. Spatial distribution of seasonal trends of these variables was also estimated for the four seasons in Nigeria. The result of the linear regression on temperatures and rainfall showed increasing trends in most of the locations across the country. Similarly, Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope analysis showed a significant increasing trend in most areas across the country. Consequently, recent phenomena of environmental hazard such as an outbreak of airborne diseases and flooding leading to the collapse of buildings and various environmental disasters can be linked to the observed result.