Spatio-temporal trend and change point detection of winter temperature of North Bengal, India

Abstract

The trend of temperature and homogeneity are the most significant issue for climate change allied research. This research aims to identify the long-term trend and change point detection of winter maximum (tmax), minimum (tmin) and average (tmean) temperature of six meteorological stations of North Bengal, India using 102 years’ time series data (1915–2016). To detect the monotonic trend and the rate of change, non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator were used. Homogeneity of winter temperature was studied using Buishand’s range test (B test) and Pettit’s test (P test). From the results, it was observed that most of the stations were showed significant (P < 0.05) warming trend in winter season. The rate of increasing was highest at station English Bazar in the month of December. On the other hand, significant changed of winter tmax and tmean occurred in around 1959 and 1952 respectively, while for tmin it was quite late, occurred in the year 1988. The populations of North Bengal who are dependent on temperature-related primary economic activities are getting benefitted from this study. In addition, these analyses will be helpful for policymakers and scientist to focus on micro-level planning and sustainable Rabi crops management in this region.