Abstract
Gun violence in the United States of America is a large public health problem that disproportionately affects urban areas. The epidemiology of gun violence reflects various aspects of an infectious disease including spatial and temporal clustering. We examined the spatial and temporal trends of gun violence in Syracuse, New York, a city of 145,000. We used a spatial scan statistic to reveal spatio-temporal clusters of gunshots investigated and corroborated by Syracuse City Police Department for the years 2009–2015. We also examined predictors of areas with increased gun violence using a multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression with data from the 2010 census. Two space-time clusters of gun violence were revealed in the city. Higher rates of segregation, poverty and the summer months were all associated with increased risk of gun violence. Previous gunshots in the area were associated with a 26.8% increase in the risk of gun violence. Gun violence in Syracuse, NY is both spatially and temporally stable, with some neighborhoods of the city greatly afflicted.
Highlights
Gunshot violence in the United States of America claims the lives of an estimated 34,000 individuals each year through homicide, suicide, and accidental shooting [1]
These trends vary depending on the location—Chicago had its bloodiest year in nearly two decades in 2016 with nearly 2 murders per day whereas New York City saw a continuation of a dramatic decline in murders [5,6]
The city of Syracuse lies in central New York (43.0469 ̊ N, 76.1444 ̊ W), and is the fourth largest city in the state of New York
Summary
Gunshot violence in the United States of America claims the lives of an estimated 34,000 individuals each year through homicide, suicide, and accidental shooting [1]. The homicide rate in the US has decreased from an estimated 5.5 per 100,000 in 2000 to 4.7 per 100,000 in 2012 This gun homicide rate decline masks potentially fatal gun injuries that do not result in death, due to improvements in trauma care [2]. Such emergency transport and medical care for firearm injuries, incurs huge costs, estimated at $17.7 billion per year [3]. These trends vary depending on the location—Chicago had its bloodiest year in nearly two decades in 2016 with nearly 2 murders per day whereas New York City saw a continuation of a dramatic decline in murders [5,6]
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