Abstract
BackgroundThe parasite Leishmania infantum causes zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a potentially fatal vector-borne disease of canids and humans. Zoonotic VL poses a significant risk to public health, with regions of Latin America being particularly afflicted by the disease. Leishmania infantum parasites are transmitted between hosts during blood-feeding by infected female phlebotomine sand flies. With a principal reservoir host of L. infantum being domestic dogs, limiting prevalence in this reservoir may result in a reduced risk of infection for the human population. To this end, a primary focus of research efforts has been to understand disease transmission dynamics among dogs. One way this can be achieved is through the use of mathematical models.MethodsWe have developed a stochastic, spatial, individual-based mechanistic model of L. infantum transmission in domestic dogs. The model framework was applied to a rural Brazilian village setting with parameter values informed by fieldwork and laboratory data. To ensure household and sand fly populations were realistic, we statistically fitted distributions for these entities to existing survey data. To identify the model parameters of highest importance, we performed a stochastic parameter sensitivity analysis of the prevalence of infection among dogs to the model parameters.ResultsWe computed parametric distributions for the number of humans and animals per household and a non-parametric temporal profile for sand fly abundance. The stochastic parameter sensitivity analysis determined prevalence of L. infantum infection in dogs to be most strongly affected by the sand fly associated parameters and the proportion of immigrant dogs already infected with L. infantum parasites.ConclusionsEstablishing the model parameters with the highest sensitivity of average L. infantum infection prevalence in dogs to their variation helps motivate future data collection efforts focusing on these elements. Moreover, the proposed mechanistic modelling framework provides a foundation that can be expanded to explore spatial patterns of zoonotic VL in humans and to assess spatially targeted interventions.
Highlights
The parasite Leishmania infantum causes zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a potentially fatal vectorborne disease of canids and humans
Model description Informed by presently available field and laboratory data, we have developed a stochastic, spatial, individual-based, mechanistic model for L. infantum infection progression in domestic dogs in order to estimate L. infantum prevalence amongst the domestic dog population
Zoonotic VL, caused by Leishmania parasites, is spatially heterogeneous and it is essential that monitoring, surveillance and intervention strategies take this variation into account
Summary
The parasite Leishmania infantum causes zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a potentially fatal vectorborne disease of canids and humans. Leishmania infantum parasites are transmitted between hosts during blood-feeding by infected female phlebotomine sand flies. With a principal reservoir host of L. infantum being domestic dogs, limiting prevalence in this reservoir may result in a reduced risk of infection for the human population. To this end, a primary focus of research efforts has been to understand disease transmission dynamics among dogs. Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a potentially fatal disease of humans and canids caused by the parasite Leishmania infantum These parasites are transmitted between hosts during blood-feeding by infected female phlebotomine sand fly vectors [1, 2]. In addition to dogs and humans, domestic livestock living in close proximity to humans, such as chickens, pigs and cattle, are epidemiologically significant blood-meal sources for sand flies [8, 9]
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