Spatio-temporal hotspots and application on a disease analysis case via GIS

Abstract

Hotspot analysis is a spatial analysis that uses cluster techniques for determining areas with elevated concentrations of localized events. We use the consolidated Extended Fuzzy C-Means algorithm to determine the hotspot areas on the map as circles, moreover the advantages of this technique are the linear computational complexity, the robustness to noise and outliers, the automatic determination of the optimal number C of clusters (in the classical FCM algorithm C is chosen a priori). Furthermore it prevents the problem of shifting the clusters with low density area of data points in areas with higher density of such points. We apply this method to study the spatio-temporal variations of the hotspot areas by testing this process on a specific disease problem, precisely we have clusterized 5,000 point-events correspondent to cases of brain cancer detected in the state of New Mexico from 1973 to 1991. We also show that the same results are obtained by using the Extended Gustafson---Kessel algorithm which gives elliptical clusters. We have implemented both algorithms in a Geographic Information System environment. Thus we establish the areas which seem not interested from the incidence of the disease and those areas in which the phenomenon appears to be temporarily attenuated either increased or constant or quite disappeared.