Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of “Non-Grain Production” in Hubei Province Based on a Non-Grain Index

Abstract

Non-grain production (NGP) on cultivated land has become a common phenomenon due to the prosperity of the rural economy and the optimisation of the agricultural structure. However, the excessive use of cultivating land for NGP has threatened food production and the sustainable use of cultivated land. To halt this trend and to ensure food security, the authors of this paper applied a novel non-grain index to measure NGP, which could reflect multiple NGP activities; designated Hubei Province as its object of research; and revealed NGP’s spatio-temporal patterns of the past 30 years. We then assessed the characteristics of NGP based on spatial autocorrelation analysis, the Theil index, and geographically weighted regression. The results showed that the value of the non-grain index grew from 0.497 to 1.113 as NGP increased significantly in Hubei Province. The number of high-NGP counties increased, spatial agglomeration became obvious, and the eastern and western sides of Hubei Province witnessed an observable growth in NGP. As a result, the NGP in the eastern and western regions overtook production in the central region. Despite a series of historical subsidy policies and agricultural modernisation initiatives that promoted the planting of grain crops, the policy of “grain on valuable cultivated land” could be better implemented. We conclude by making some suggestions for reducing NGP and protecting cultivated land.