Spatio-temporal dynamics on the distribution, extent, and net primary productivity of potential grassland in response to climate changes in China

Abstract

Net primary productivity (NPP) of grassland is one of the key components in measuring the carrying capacity of livestock. Not only are grassland researchers concerned with the performance of NPP simulation models under current climate conditions, they also need to understand the behaviour of NPP–climate models under projected climatic changes. One of the goals of this study was to evaluate the three NPP–climate models: the Miami Model, the Schuur Model, and the Classification Indices-based Model. Results indicated that the Classification Indices-based Model was the most effective model at estimating large-scale grassland NPP. Both the Integrated Orderly Classification System of Grassland and the Classification Indices-based Model were then applied to analyse the succession of grassland biomes and to measure the change in total NPP (TNPP) of grassland biomes from the recent past (1950–2000) to a future scenario (2001–2050) in a geographic information system environment. Results of the simulations indicate that, under recent-past climatic conditions, the major biomes of China’s grassland are the tundra and alpine steppe, and steppe, and these would be converted into steppe and semi-desert grassland in the future scenario; the potential grassland TNPP in China was projected to be 0.72 PgC under recent-past climatic conditions, and would be 0.83 Pg C under the future climatic scenario. The ‘safe’ carrying capacity of livestock that best integrates a wide range of factors, such as grassland classes, climatic variability, and animal nutrition, is discussed as unresolved. Further research and development is needed to identify the regional trends for the ‘safe’ carrying capacity of livestock to maintain sustainable resource condition and reduce the risk of resource degradation. This important task remains a challenge for all grassland scientists and practitioners.