Spatio-temporal compounding of connected extreme events: Projection and hotspot identification

Abstract

In general, the impact of two different connected extreme events is noticed on the same duration and spatial area. However, the connected extreme events can have footprint over different temporal and spatial scales. Thus, this article analyses the connected extreme events over India using the spatio-temporal compounding technique to understand the impact at different temporal and spatial scales. This approach is applied to analyse the historical and future connected extreme events. In the present study, coincident heat waves and droughts (Event C1), coincident heat waves and extreme precipitation (Event C2) are considered as connected extreme events. The future events are investigated using the suitable global climate models (GCMs) projections under three climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 2–4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The suitable GCMs are identified with the help of compromise programming. Subsequently, the hotspot regions are identified applying the Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) method. The outcomes from the study suggest that with increasing temporal compounding, the mean duration of extreme events also increases. Highest increase in mean duration is observed for Event C1 over PI (Peninsular India), WCI (West Central India), and some parts of CNI (Central Northeast India) regions. The regions with high magnitude of duration have low magnitude of occurrence. The duration of Event C1 is likely to increase with respect to climate change scenarios and temporal compounding, especially in the PI region and some parts of WCI. However, there is insignificant change in the duration of Event C2. The PI region identified as the most vulnerable region followed by WCI and HR regions. The highest percentage of area under the emerging hotspot category is noticed under SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario.