Abstract
Background: The number of Tuberculosis (TB) cases or deaths is declining, however, the rate of decline is not adequate to meet the World Health Organization's (WHO's) mitigation. TB remains a public health problem in Ghana with a significant economic and health burden on its citizens and health care system. Consequently, there is a need for further studies about the disease aimed at accelerating the rate of decline in cases. Methods: The spatio-temporal characteristics of TB in Ghana using Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal regression models was analysed in this study. Data were obtained from Ghana National Tuberculosis Programme (NTP) for the 10 regions of Ghana, collected over a six-year period. The study also examines some baseline predictors of TB infections to ascertain their effects on the TB risk across the ten regions in Ghana. Results: Hot-spots of TB cases are observed in the Upper East, Upper West, Volta, Western, and Central regions and low risk in the Northern, Ashanti, Greater Accra, Brong Ahafo, Eastern and Western regions. The results indicated a clustering of risk between neighboring regions. TB cure rate, TB success rate, knowledge about TB, awareness that TB is airborne, HIV prevalence, percentage of literacy, and high income are important predictors of detection for this disease across the ten regions of Ghana. Conclusion: Most regions in Ghana have similar TB risks. A substantial reduction in TB cases requires measures that will increase detection, success and cure rates, awareness, knowledge about how this disease spreads as well adequate health facilities with easy access.
Highlights
The number of Tuberculosis (TB) cases or deaths is declining, the rate of decline is not adequate to meet the World Health Organization's (WHO's) mitigation
The results indicated a clustering of risk between neighboring regions
Globally, Tuberculosis (TB) is in the top ten causes of death in low-income countries.[1]. This infectious disease is transmitted by bacillus Mycobacterium tuberculosis.[2]
Summary
The number of Tuberculosis (TB) cases or deaths is declining, the rate of decline is not adequate to meet the World Health Organization's (WHO's) mitigation. Infections among children (aged 15 years and below) accounted for 12% of the total cases and about 8.2% of the reported cases were HIV-patients.[2] Geographically, the 2020 reports have shown that the highest number of new TB cases occurred in the WHO South-East Asia (43%), followed by Africa Region (25%), and the WHO Western Pacific (18%), compared to Eastern Mediterranean (8.2%), America (2.9%) and Europe (2.5%).[2,4] It has been estimated that 86% of new TB cases occurred in the 30 high TB burden countries,[4] where eight countries including India, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and South Africa accounted for 2/3 of the new TB cases
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