Spatio-Temporal Changes of Arable Land and Their Impacts on Grain Output in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1980 to 2020

Abstract

The “Yangtze River Economic Belt Development Strategy” is one of China’s three major national development strategies. Enhancing the protection and quality of arable land in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB) is pivotal for fostering regional growth. In this study, land use data spanning the years 1980 to 2020 in the YEB were extracted from the national land use database maintained by the Resource and Environment Data Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Employing Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis techniques and arable land change metrics, the study delineated the spatiotemporal characteristics of arable land alterations across the YEB for the period. Additionally, using grain output data at the prefecture level from 2011 to 2020, the paper calculated provincial grain output to analyze the impact of arable land changes over the last four decades on grain output. The findings revealed that: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the total arable land area in the YEB decreased by approximately 41,775 square kilometers, with the most significant decrease occurring in the downstream region. (2) From 1980 to 1990, the primary factor contributing to the decrease in arable land area was the expansion of water bodies, while from 1990 to 2020, the principal reason for the reduction in arable land area was the expansion of construction land. (3) From 1980 to 2020, the decrease in arable land area resulted in a net reduction of approximately 25.12 million tons in total grain output, with the largest decline observed in the downstream regions and the smallest decline in the upstream regions. (4) Consistent with the trends in arable land area reduction, the main reason for the decline in grain output from 1980 to 1990 was the expansion of water bodies encroaching upon arable land, whereas from 2000 to 2010, the primary cause of arable land reduction was the expansion of construction land areas. In conclusion, the research suggested that over the past four decades, the primary driver behind the reduction in arable land within the YEB has been the expansion of construction land areas. Particularly noteworthy was the period from 2000 to 2010, during which the impact of arable land reduction on grain output was most pronounced. This period coincided with the rapid economic development and accelerated urbanization process within the YEB.