Spatio-Temporal Change of Crime at Provincial Scale in China—Since the Economic Reform

Abstract

China has undergone tremendous social changes during the transition since the Economic Reform, and this paper did a comparative study on crime change patterns among provinces both spatially and temporally. The results indicated that (1) regional differences on crime levels and temporal change trends were largely influenced, or even been shaped, by the outcomes brought by economic reform, such as priority developmental policies, geographical location, transportation facilities, etc. For example, spatially, more developed areas with more governmental policy supports not only saw dramatic development during the economic reform but also showed higher criminal rates and greater criminal rate variation. (2) The relationships between criminal rates and corresponding contextual conditions vary by temporal scales (long-run and short-run), regions, target areas’ features and their different development policy priorities; (3) experiences from Western theories and empirical studies cannot be applied directly into the Chinese society, without taking into consideration of the spatial-temporal scales and target’s specialities; it is also suggestive to local policy-makers and governmental agencies that crime reduction and prevention measures should not be identical to other places and need to be made according to local characteristics.