Spatio‐temporal aspects of snowpack runoff formation during rain on snow

Abstract

AbstractRain on snow (ROS) is a complex phenomenon leading to repeated flooding in many regions with a seasonal snow cover. The potential to generate floods during ROS depends not only on the magnitude of rainfall but also on the areal extent of the antecedent snow cover and the spatio‐temporal interaction between meteorologic and snowpack properties. The complex interaction of these factors makes it difficult to accurately predict the effect of snow cover on runoff formation for an upcoming ROS event. In this study, the detailed physics‐based snow cover model SNOWPACK was used to assess the influence of snow cover properties on converting rain input to available snowpack runoff during 191 ROS events for 58 catchments in the Swiss Alps. Conditions identified by the simulations that led to excessive snowpack runoff were a large snow‐covered fraction, spatially homogeneous snowpack properties, prolonged rainfall events, and a strong rise in air temperature over the course of the event. These factors entail a higher probability of snowpack runoff occurring synchronously within the catchment, which in turn favours higher overall runoff rates. The findings suggest that during autumn and late spring, flooding due to ROS is more likely to happen, whereas during winter a coincidence of the above conditions in the study area is quite rare. For example, an autumn event which occurred in October 2011 resulted from a combination of spatially homogeneous snowpack conditions following a recent snowfall and high, but not exceptional rainfall, and led to major flooding. The results of this study provide key factors to assess in advance of an incoming ROS event and emphasize the importance of detailed snow monitoring for flood forecasting in snow‐affected watersheds.