Spatio-temporal analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Türkiye: results of the controlled normalization

Abstract

This study investigates the spatio-temporal structure of the pandemic in Türkiye during the normalization process. An analysis has been conducted based on spatial and space–time scan statistics of the province-based numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases during the normalization process from February 27 to May 7, 2021. The clusters affected by regional application differences has determined. The increase in cases has been observed, and the risk classes that supported the spatial relationship have been determined. Positive spatial relationships have been observed. Moran I measurements have also directly overlapped with the developments in the timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic in Türkiye. Local Moran I analysis has shown the transition of clusters from different regions to others over time. According to the results, controlled normalization has not happened as expected and the increase in the number of cases eventually led to the start of a total lockdown. Spatial and spatio-temporal analysis may show how to respond to a potential new pandemic. Regulations that vary from region to region can be meaningless depending on the spatial interaction. Decision makers may benefit in the future from these analyses, which reveal the results of experience to control current worsening scenarios.