Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Influenza-Like Illness and Prediction of Incidence in High-Risk Regions in the United States from 2011 to 2020.

Zhijuan Song,Huili Zhu,Yongli Yang,Junzhe Bao,Xiaocan Jia,Xuezhong Shi

doi:10.3390/ijerph18137120

Abstract

About 8% of the Americans contract influenza during an average season according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States. It is necessary to strengthen the early warning for influenza and the prediction of public health. In this study, Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial scanning analysis were used to identify the spatiotemporal patterns of influenza-like illness (ILI) prevalence in the United States, during the 2011–2020 transmission seasons. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was constructed to predict the influenza incidence of high-risk states. We found the highest incidence of ILI was mainly concentrated in the states of Louisiana, District of Columbia and Virginia. Mississippi was a high-risk state with a higher influenza incidence, and exhibited a high-high cluster with neighboring states. A SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0)52 model was suitable for forecasting the ILI incidence of Mississippi. The relative errors between actual values and predicted values indicated that the predicted values matched the actual values well. Influenza is still an important health problem in the United States. The spread of ILI varies by season and geographical region. The peak season of influenza was the winter and spring, and the states with higher influenza rates are concentrated in the southeast. Increased surveillance in high-risk states could help control the spread of the influenza.

Highlights

Influenza is caused by the influenza virus which mainly spreads through airborne droplets and direct contact
Yuzhou [14] used the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to control the effects of seasonality in the forecast of influenza epidemics, and the results showed that the SARIMA model had better predictive performance
The confirmed influenza case was “A patient who tests positive for influenza virus infection by an approved laboratory test”, and influenzalike illness (ILI) is defined as “fever (temperature of 100 ◦ F (37.8 ◦ C) or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza”

Summary

Introduction

Influenza is caused by the influenza virus which mainly spreads through airborne droplets and direct contact. It has the characteristics of strong infectivity, rapid transmission and antigen variation. May. Influenza virus infections are very common and their incidence can only be estimated [1]. Previous estimates attributed to the World Health Organization indicated that. 250,000–500,000 influenza-associated deaths occur annually, corresponding to estimates of. 3.8–7.7 deaths per 100,000 individuals calculated using 2005 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs World Population Prospects [2]. The 2017–2018 influenza season in the United States was notable for its high severity, with about 45 million illnesses and 810,000 influenza-associated hospitalizations throughout the United States [2]

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