Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Dengue Cases in Kuningan District Since 2008-2017

Abstract

Dengue has spread to over 400 of Indonesia’s 497 districts, including West Java Province in which 26 of its districts have been declared as hyper-endemic. A study was conducted to describe the spread of dengue incidences and its cluster during 2008-2017 in Kuningan District. The district is located in an important route, in migration and in the economic field, connecting the northern part of West Java to the southern part. A spatio-temporal analysis based on monthly dengue incidences from the local District Health Office was performed using SaTScan™. This study revealed there were Statistically significant high-risk dengue clusters with various RR in half of the subdistricts in Kuningan in the ten-year periods of 2008-2017 and a retrospective space-time analysis detected 17 significant clusters (P<0.001). Subdistrict Kuningan is detected as a high-risk area every year except for 2008, whereas Jalaksana emerged as a high-risk cluster in six of ten-year periods. We conclude that there was a dynamic spread of dengue cases initiated from the north part of Kuningan District to western areas. This study results do not properly predict RR due to a lack of information on some significant factors, such as vector density and related environmental and socioeconomic parameters. However, this study has provided a perspective on dengue incidence that can be used by local health managers and disease surveillance personnel to monitor prospective outbreaks and make decisions about how to implement an effective response.