Abstract
BackgroundBacillary dysentery (BD) is a common infectious disease in China and causes enormous economic burdens. The purpose of this study was to describe the epidemiological characteristics of BD and to identify its possible hot spots and potentially high-risk areas in Sichuan province of China.MethodsIn this study, we collected monthly BD incidence reports of 181 counties in Sichuan province, China, from January 2011 to December 2019. Descriptive statistics were used to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of BD. Moran’s I index was applied to investigate the yearly patterns of the spatial distribution. And spatio-temporal scanning statistics with the spatial unit set as county and the temporal unit set as month were used to investigate the possible high-risk region. Meanwhile, the circular moving windows were also employed in the spatio-temporal scanning to scan the study areas.ResultsThe annual incidence of BD ranged between 16.13/100,000 and 6.17/100,000 person-years from 2011 to 2019 in Sichuan. The majority of the cases were children aged 5 years or younger. For the descriptive statistics, a peak from May to October was observed in temporal analysis, the epidemics were mainly concentrated in the northwest and southwest of Sichuan in spatial analysis. After 2016, the scope of BD significantly narrowed and severe epidemic areas were relatively stable. For the spatial autocorrelation analysis, a high global autocorrelation was observed at the county level, and the high–high clusters mainly distributed in the northwest and southwest of Sichuan. For the spatio-temporal scanning, the spatiotemporal clusters of BD occurred every year from 2011 to 2019. The most likely cluster areas mainly distributed in the southwest and northwest of Sichuan at the beginning, and then gradually concentrated in the southwest. The secondary cluster mainly concentrated in the northwest and its surrounding areas. Moreover, the 2nd secondary cluster was relatively small and mainly distributed in the central area. No clusters were noted in eastern Sichuan.ConclusionsBased on our current analysis, BD is still a common challenge in Sichuan, especially for counties in the southwest and northwest in summer and autumn. More disease prevention and control measures should be taken in such higher-risk susceptible areas at a certain time to allocate the public health resources rationally, and finally reduce the spread of BD.
Highlights
Bacillary dysentery (BD) is a common infectious disease in China and causes enormous economic burdens
Bacillary dysentery (BD) is a kind of intestinal bacterial infection caused by different strains of Shigella, which is susceptible to all populations and is the leading cause of
Since Shigella outbreaks and epidemics were often caused by water or food pollution, especially in poor personal hygiene and crowded environments [7], taking targeted prevention and control measures in epidemic areas are of great significance to reduce the incidence rate of the disease
Summary
Bacillary dysentery (BD) is a common infectious disease in China and causes enormous economic burdens. The incidence of BD has ranked sixth among various infectious diseases in Sichuan. Since Shigella outbreaks and epidemics were often caused by water or food pollution, especially in poor personal hygiene and crowded environments [7], taking targeted prevention and control measures in epidemic areas are of great significance to reduce the incidence rate of the disease. Sichuan province have changed a lot in terms of society, economy, and environment. Considering these changes occurred in recent years, it was necessary to reassess the epidemiological characteristics of BD in Sichuan
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