Abstract

The water source area of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is an important water conservation and ecological protection area in China. Based on remote sensing data, this paper analyzed the evolution process of land use/cover change in water source region in the past 35 years. Then, based on the InVEST model, the spatial-temporal patterns of water yield in the water source region were calculated with land use cover, meteorology and soil data as inputs. The impacts of climate factors such as precipitation and temperature and land use change on water yield were discussed, and the responses of water yield to these two changes were also discussed. The results show that from 1985 to 2020, the average water yield depth in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project increases first and then decreases, from 615 mm in 1985 to 738 mm in 2000, and then decreases to 521 mm in 2020. The spatial heterogeneity of the water-producing capacity is obvious. The high value of the water-producing capacity is concentrated in the Daba Mountain area in the south, while the low values are concentrated in the Hanzhong Basin, Ankang Basin and the eastern plain area. The spatial pattern of water producing depth has no obvious change. The average water yield depth of forest, grassland and shrub in the region was the largest, and forest and cultivated land were the main contributors to the total water yield of the region, providing 82% and 14% of the total water yield in 2020. Precipitation has a significant effect on water yield, while land use/cover change has a small effect on water yield.

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