Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and drivers of carbon emission intensity of resource-based cities in china

Abstract

As the key object of carbon emission reduction, resource-based cities’ carbon emission problems are related to the achievement of China’s goals to peak carbon emission and achieve carbon neutrality. In this paper, 115 resource-based cities with abundant natural resources in China were studied, and spatial analysis techniques such as LISA (Local Indicators of Spatial Association) time path and spatial-temporal transition were used to explore their spatial divergence pattern and spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emission intensity from 2000 to 2019, while geodetector model was used further to reveal their drivers and impacts on the environment. It is found that 1) the carbon emission intensity of resource-based cities shows a significant decreasing trend, with significant differences in carbon emission intensity and its decreasing rate in different development stages and resource-type cities. The overall trend of growing cities, declining cities, mature cities and regenerating cities decreases in order. The carbon emission intensity of cities in the energy, forest industry, general, metal and non-metal categories gradually decrease. The spatial pattern of carbon emission intensity has strong stability, with an overall spatial distribution of high in the north and low in the south. 2) The spatial structure of carbon emission intensity in resource-based cities has strong stability, dependence and integration, with the stability gradually increasing from north to south and the path dependence and locking characteristics of the carbon emission intensity pattern slightly weakened. 3) The spatial divergence of carbon emission intensity in resource-based cities is the result of the action of multiple factors, among which the level of financial investment, urban economic density, urban population density, urban investment intensity and energy use efficiency are the dominant factors. 4) The leading drivers of carbon emission intensity are different in cities at different development stages and with various resources, and grasping the characteristics of carbon emission intensity changes and drivers of various resource-based cities can better provide targeted countermeasures for resource-based cities to achieve carbon emission reduction targets and sustainable development.