Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Economic Dual Circulation Coordinated Development in China’s Coastal Provinces

Abstract

China’s coastal area is an important node, carrying the connection between internal and external circulation. It is of great significance to explore the spatial and temporal evolution of economic dual circulation coordinated development and its driving factors. In this paper, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) evaluation model based on the Criteria Importance Though Intercriteria Correlation and entropy (CRITIC-entropy) weight method, coupling coordination model, standard deviation ellipse and exploratory spatial data analysis were used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of economic dual circulation coordinated development of China’s coastal area. In addition, the geographical detector was employed to identify its driving factors. The results showed that: (1) The development level of internal and external economic circulation in China’s coastal area was mainly stable and rising in a fluctuating manner, and the level of internal circulation was higher than that of external circulation. The overall coupling coordination degree of economic dual circulation exhibited a positive trend. (2) There was regional heterogeneity and spatial correlation in the coupling coordination degree of economic dual circulation in the coastal area of China, and the spatial distribution pattern showed the characteristic of being “strong in the internal and weak in the external”. (3) The coordinated development of economic dual circulation was driven by multiple factors. Regional technological innovation capability, per capita income level, circulation development level, marketization process, digitization level and financial development level were the core driving forces. Based on the findings of this paper, a series of policy recommendations for improving the coordination development between internal and external economic circulation was proposed.