Spatial–Temporal Distribution Pattern of Ormosia hosiei in Sichuan under Different Climate Scenarios

Abstract

Ormosia hosiei is an endemic plant in China listed as a national grade II key protected wild plant with important scientific, economic, and cultural values. This study was designed to predict the potential suitable distribution areas for O. hosiei under current and future climate change and to provide a reference to enhance the species’ conservation and utilization. Based on the actual geographical locations of O. hosiei in Sichuan, we applied two species distribution models (BIOCLIM and DOMAIN) to predict its current and future potential suitable areas and future change patterns. We also analyzed the major climatic variables limiting its geographical distribution with principal component analysis. The results indicated that O. hosiei was mainly distributed in the eastern region of Sichuan and concentrated in the middle subtropical climate zone at relatively low elevations. The principal component analysis identified two critical factors representing temperature and moisture. The temperature was the most critical factor limiting O. hosiei distribution in Sichuan, especially the effect of extreme low temperatures. Both models’ simulation results of potential suitable areas under the current climate scenario showed that the excellent suitable habitat was consistent with the current actual distribution, remaining in the eastern region of Sichuan. Under the future climate scenario with doubled CO2 concentration (2100), both models predicted a sharp decrease in the areas of excellent and very high suitable habitats. The findings can inform strategies and guidelines for O. hosiei research, conservation, nursery production, and cultivation in Sichuan.