Spatially Explicit Mapping of Heat Health Risk Utilizing Environmental and Socioeconomic Data.

Abstract

Extreme heat events, a leading cause of weather-related fatality worldwide, are expected to intensify, last longer, and occur more frequently in the near future. In heat health risk assessments, a spatiotemporal mismatch usually exists between hazard (heat stress) data and exposure (population distribution) data. Such mismatch is present because demographic data are generally updated every couple of years and unavailable at the subcensus unit level, which hinders the ability to diagnose human risks. In the present work, a human settlement index based on multisensor remote sensing data, including nighttime light, vegetation index, and digital elevation model data, was used for heat exposure assessment on a per-pixel basis. Moreover, the nighttime urban heat island effect was considered in heat hazard assessment. The heat-related health risk was spatially explicitly assessed and mapped at the 250 m × 250 m pixel level across Zhejiang Province in eastern China. The results showed that the accumulated heat risk estimates and the heat-related deaths were significantly correlated at the county level (Spearman's correlation coefficient = 0.76, P ≤ 0.01). Our analysis introduced a spatially specific methodology for the risk mapping of heat-related health outcomes, which is useful for decision support in preparation and mitigation of heat-related risk and potential adaptation.