Spatially Explicit Habitat Models for Prairie Grouse: Implications for Improved Population Monitoring and Targeted Conservation

Abstract

ABSTRACTWe collaboratively designed and implemented a pilot study to evaluate improved methods for estimating the distribution and abundance of prairie grouse in South Dakota and North Dakota. Current prairie grouse population monitoring in both states relies on annual surveys of male birds on leks within designated survey blocks. Although the survey results may give insight into local populations, they have limited utility in estimating statewide abundances or trends because survey blocks are often non‐random, biased toward high quality habitat, and lack adequate spatial coverage. To improve upon current methods, we surveyed male prairie grouse on 865 randomly selected Public Land Survey Sections from 2010–2016, then developed habitat‐based spatially explicit occurrence and density models, which we then applied to the universe of environmental predictors to create spatial maps. Our results were consistent with prairie grouse biology, showing strong selection for grasslands and avoidance of developed areas. We demonstrate how our approach provides several avenues to estimate relative abundance of males with confidence limits, along with suggestions to improve estimates. In addition to providing insight into broad‐scale habitat selection, spatially explicit habitat models can be valuable tools for identifying and prioritizing areas for conservation treatments such as protection, restoration, or enhancement of habitat. We provide recommendations for future data collection and application of conservation treatments to improve prairie grouse population monitoring and conservation delivery across large landscapes. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.