Spatially Explicit Assessment of Social Vulnerability in Coastal China

Xuchao Yang,Lin Lin,Yizhe Zhang,Guanqiong Ye,Tingting Ye,Qian Chen,Cheng Jin

doi:10.3390/su11185075

Xuchao Yang, Lin Lin + Show 5 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/su11185075

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Abstract

Social vulnerability assessment has been recognized as a reliable and effective measure for informing coastal hazard management. Although significant advances have been made in the study of social vulnerability for over two decades, China’s social vulnerability profiles are mainly based on administrative unit. Consequently, no detailed distribution is provided, and the capability to diagnose human risks is hindered. In this study, we established a social vulnerability index (SoVI) in 2000 and 2010 at a spatial resolution of 250 m for China’s coastal zone by combining the potential exposure index (PEI) and social resilience index (SRI). The PEI with a 250 m resolution was obtained by fitting the census data and multisource remote sensing data in random forest model. The county-level SRI was evaluated through principal component analysis based on 33 socioeconomic variables. For identifying the spatiotemporal change, we used global and local Moran’s I to map clusters of SoVI and its percent change in the decade. The results suggest the following: (1) Counties in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and eastern Guangzhou, except several small hot spots, exhibited the most vulnerability, especially in urban areas, whereas those in Hainan and southern Liaoning presented the least vulnerability. (2) Notable increases were emphasized in Tianjin, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta. The spatiotemporal variation and heterogeneity in social vulnerability obtained through this analysis will provide a scientific basis to decision-makers to focus risk mitigation effort.

Highlights

The population density in coastal zones is significantly higher than other areas [1,2] due to sufficient resources for human activities and civilization of early days [3]
Given that social vulnerability affects people living in exposed areas, we considered that the potential exposure group (PEG) could be divided into two groups, namely, social vulnerability group (SVG) and social resilience group (SRG) [50]
This study developed a social vulnerability assessment metric for China’s coastal zone at the grid level

Summary

Introduction

The population density in coastal zones is significantly higher than other areas [1,2] due to sufficient resources for human activities and civilization of early days [3]. Coastal wetlands provide numerous important functions, such as waste assimilation, nursery areas for fisheries and mariculture, flood protection, and nature conservation [7]. Most coastal zones worldwide are affected by climate change, especially global sea level rise [10,11], which influences the frequency and intensity of storm surge [12]. Considering the high concentration of assets and population, the vulnerability of China’s coastal zones should be evaluated, which is regarded as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability [14]

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