Spatialization and Analysis of China’s GDP Based on NPP/VIIRS Data from 2013 to 2023

Abstract

The quality of nighttime light (NTL) data is an important factor affecting the estimation of gross domestic product (GDP), but most studies do not use the latest NPP/VIIRS V2 annual composite product, and there is a lack of China’s GDP estimation products in recent years. To address this problem, this paper studies the NPP/VIIRS remote sensing estimation method for the GDP in mainland China from 2013 to 2023. First, the remote sensing data are preprocessed, and the noise masking method is used to remove outliers. The total amount of NTL, average NTL value, and comprehensive NTL index data are extracted. Combined with the GDP data from the Statistical Yearbook, a fitting model of the GDP and NTL index is constructed. The differences between different GDP estimation models are compared and analyzed, and the optimal model is selected as the estimation model. In addition, through the optimal fitting model, GDP spatial estimation products from 2013 to 2023 are produced. Moreover, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the GDP in mainland China are analyzed, with a focus on the spatiotemporal variation of GDP decline regions and the changes in the GDP rankings of provinces and cities. The main conclusions include the following: (1) In the time regression analysis, the linear model MNL has a strong correlation with the GDP, with an R2 of 0.972. This model is selected as the optimal fitting model to calculate the spatial data of the GDP. (2) The spatial distribution of the GDP in mainland China is high in the east and low in the west, and it shows a characteristic of extending from the provincial capital to the surrounding cities. The connectivity between adjacent high-GDP areas continues to increase. (3) From 2013 to 2023, the GDP in most parts of China showed an upward trend, with 98.56% of pixels growing and only 0.99% of pixels declining. The declining pixels are mainly distributed in heavy industrial cities supported by fossil fuel resources, such as Ordos, Daqing, Aksu, etc. (4) Compared with statistical data, the overall difference of the GDP estimated by NTL data is not large, and the relative error is between 0.04% and 1.95%. From the perspective of the GDP ranking of each province, the ranking of most provinces is not much different, fluctuating between ±2. A small number of provinces have large ranking differences due to reasons such as dominant industries and power supply. By spatializing the GDP data of mainland China in the past 11 years, the spatiotemporal changes of the GDP within mainland China were analyzed. The research results can provide support for government economic decisions such as urban development.