Spatial Variation in Socio-ecological Vulnerability to COVID-19 in the Contiguous United States

Abstract

The health and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic vary across space because social, economic, health and ecological factors are also spatially variable. Social vulnerability indices are attempts to create a relative ranking of vulnerability to a natural or anthropogenic hazard across space and have been widely used to quantify community vulnerability to natural disasters. Here, we develop a hierarchical socio-ecological vulnerability index that compares counties in the contiguous United States based on 18 variables grouped into four dimensions (ecological, social, health, and economic) in order to capture a range of factors that might contribute to community vulnerability to COVID-19. Variables were chosen based on a review of the emerging literature about the factors associated with poor health outcomes from COVID-19, information about the economic sectors most at risk from the pandemic and pandemic response, and existing social vulnerability indices. We find that socio-ecological vulnerability to COVID-19 and its related economic effects varies across the contiguous U.S., with especially high vulnerability in the Southeast U.S. and especially low vulnerability in the Upper Midwest, Great Plains, and Mountain West.