Abstract
Given the substantial economic damage caused by the continual circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks since 2003, identifying high-risk locations associated with HPAI infections is essential. In this study, using affected and unaffected poultry farms’ locations during an HPAI H5N6 epidemic in South Korea, we identified places where clusters of HPAI cases were found. Hotspots were defined as regions having clusters of HPAI cases. With the help of the statistical computer program R, a kernel density estimate and a spatial scan statistic were employed for this purpose. A kernel density estimate and detection of significant clusters through a spatial scan statistic both showed that districts in the Chungcheongbuk-do, Jeollabuk-do, and Jeollanam-do provinces are more vulnerable to HPAI outbreaks. Prior to the migration season, high-risk districts should implement particular biosecurity measures. High biosecurity measures, as well as improving the cleanliness of the poultry environment, would undoubtedly aid in the prevention of HPAIV transmission to poultry farms in these high-risk regions of South Korea.
Highlights
Since 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses have circulated across most of the world’s countries, causing massive economic consequences and significant public health concerns
HPAI epidemics were comparable in magnitude and scope during the 2014–2015 production season, with 38 farms confirmed afflicted in nineteen regions
H5N6 epidemic were extracted from the “Epidemiology report for outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Republic of Korea”, issued by the South Korean animal and plant quarantine agency (APQA)
Summary
Since 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses have circulated across most of the world’s countries, causing massive economic consequences and significant public health concerns. New recombinant HPAI viruses, in clade 2.3.4.4, were found in poultry and wild birds, which remain affected in South Korea since January. The Ministry of the Environment reported, in 2017, that HPAI epidemics in Korea frequently coincide with seasonal bird migration patterns [4]. The necessity for effective countermeasure applications in high-risk locations has been highlighted by multiple HPAI H5 epidemics in South Korean poultry production systems. In this study we explored methods to understand and predict risk across regions in South Korea from case and control poultry farms. We analyzed the HPAI H5N6 epidemic in South Korean poultry farms from 2017 to 2018 and identified high-risk areas in this study. In order to identify high risk sites for HPAI H5N6 clade 2.3.4.4, we used kernel density estimation and spatial scan statistics with Ripley’s K function. High levels of attention from public health officials regarding proper measures to minimize risk in the neglected regions will help to prevent avian influenza outbreaks in the future
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