Spatial Variation in Long-Term Trends in a Metapopulation of the Globally Threatened Aquatic WarblerAcrocephalus paludicolain Poland

Abstract

Abstract. The Polish breeding population (3,200–3,250 males) of the globally threatened Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola represents almost 25% of the global population. Except for the relatively stable large population in the Biebrza valley in north-east Poland less is known about population trends of peripheral populations in western, central and south-eastern regions of the country and whether trends differ depending on region. We investigated the long-term population dynamics in 38 small populations between 1969–2013 in the four Polish regions. Summarizing the trends of all small populations of Aquatic Warblers showed a significant decline in total number of individuals and declining number of populations over time. However, population trends were distinctly different in the different regions, with stable dynamics in south-east, moderate decline in north-east and sharp decline in the central and western regions. During the study period 19 out of 38 populations became extinct (11 populations in t...