Abstract
Numerous studies have demonstrated the relationship between summer temperatures and increased heat-related deaths. Epidemiological analyses of the health effects of climate exposures usually rely on observations from the nearest weather station to assess exposure-response associations for geographically diverse populations. Urban climate models provide high-resolution spatial data that may potentially improve exposure estimates, but to date, they have not been extensively applied in epidemiological research. We investigated temperature-mortality relationships in the city of Barcelona, and whether estimates vary among districts. We considered georeferenced individual (natural) mortality data during the summer months (June–September) for the period 1992–2015. We extracted daily summer mean temperatures from a 100-m resolution simulation of the urban climate model (UrbClim). Summer hot days (above percentile 70) and reference (below percentile 30) temperatures were compared by using a conditional logistic regression model in a case crossover study design applied to all districts of Barcelona. Relative Risks (RR), and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI), of all-cause (natural) mortality and summer temperature were calculated for several population subgroups (age, sex and education level by districts). Hot days were associated with an increased risk of death (RR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.10–1.16) and were significant in all population subgroups compared to the non-hot days. The risk ratio was higher among women (RR = 1.16; 95% CI= 1.12–1.21) and the elderly (RR = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.13–1.22). Individuals with primary education had similar risk (RR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.08–1.18) than those without education (RR = 1.10; 95% CI= 1.05–1.15). Moreover, 6 out of 10 districts showed statistically significant associations, varying the risk ratio between 1.12 (95% CI = 1.03–1.21) in Sants-Montjuïc and 1.25 (95% CI = 1.14–1.38) in Sant Andreu. Findings identified vulnerable districts and suggested new insights to public health policy makers on how to develop district-specific strategies to reduce risks.
Highlights
Global temperatures and heat wave frequency increases are projected to become more frequent and intense over the 21st century [1,2,3]
The characteristics of the temperature data of the urban climate model (UrbClim) model presented in Table 2 and the 70th percentile of mean temperature (>27 ◦ C) and 30th percentile (
For all-cause mortality, the relative risk increases by 13% (RR = 1.13; 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) = 1.10–1.16) on hot days compared to non-hot days, and was higher among women (RR = 1.16; 95% CI = 1.12–1.21), the elderly (RR = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.13–1.22) and in a residence with primary education or higher (RR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.08–1.18)
Summary
Global temperatures and heat wave frequency increases are projected to become more frequent and intense over the 21st century [1,2,3]. The research on extreme temperature and mortality suggests that a wide range of individual and area level characteristics may affect susceptibility to heat, such as income, poverty, education level, greenspace, age and sex [5,6]. Men and women are the most vulnerable groups; age and sex play a very important role; there are other factors that modify the temperature related mortality relation, e.g., race, access to air conditioning, level of urbanization or cost of living and socio-economic status [7]. The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-known phenomenon in which temperature of an urban area is higher than the surrounding areas. The factors that cause UHI includes greenspace, impermeable space, surface roughness, albedo and emissivity [8]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
