Spatial-temporal variation and nonlinear prediction of environmental footprints and comprehensive environmental pressure in urban agglomerations

Abstract

It is necessary to evaluate the comprehensive environmental pressure (CEP) for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Water-carbon-ecological footprints (named as WF, CF, and EF3D) and Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli projection model are integrated for identifying the CEP in the urban agglomerations of Cheng-Yu district (UAC), middle reaches of the Yangtze River (UAM), and Yangtze River Delta (UAD). Results reveal that the general water resources system is quite satisfactory. The annual growth rate of CF is approximately 4.93%, mostly contributed by raw coal consumption. Natural resources consumption exceeds the ecosystem carrying capacity due to the increased ecological deficit (above 3.0 hm2/cap). The average ecological footprint depth reaches 24.61, 17.59, and 30.89 in the UAC, UAM, and UAD, respectively, implying higher than 17 times its own land area required for supporting regional resource consumption. The growth rates of CEP are 3.53%, 2.86%, and 6.85% in the UAC, UAM, and UAD, respectively, above 80% of which is from carbon and ecological pressure. In terms of the coupling coordination degree of environmental footprints, results disclose that the resources consumption structure is improved in the UAM and UAD, but it is in an unfavorable direction for the UAC. Moreover, the future environmental footprints and CEP will continuously increase. Some measures, such as energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies, thus should be further strengthened.