Spatial-temporal variability and extreme climate indices of precipitation in a coastal watershed of southeastern Brazil.

Abstract

The analysis of multi-temporal and spatial trends of rainfall in a river basin is an essential approach for water resource planning and management approach. In this study, a combination of trend analysis and spatial-temporal variability of the rainfall for 1970-2017 was applied to examine rainfall distribution patterns in a coastal watershed, Santa Maria da Vitória River Basin (southeastern Brazil). Data from 42 meteorological stations were analyzed using kriging as a geostatistical tool for point data interpolation. Trends in rainfall were computed using the RClimDex package with eleven extreme climate indices. The results have shown spatial and temporal rainfall variability, with drought events becoming more persistent in recent years in the upper sector of the basin, where agricultural land use prevails. Water shortage may impact crops and threatening the water supply and hydropower production. Trend analysis suggests that the annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) increases in the coastal section and decreases in the upper basin sector. Consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) show a strong positive tendency in the lower basin section, where the metropolitan area is located, flooding risks increase in response to positive trends of intensive short-term rainfall events. These results support managers developing and planning sustainability strategies to assure water security and subsidize adaptative responses to extreme hydrological events.