Abstract
Abstract The primary goal of the study is to analyze the spatial-temporal trends and distribution of flood events in the context of climate change in Armenia. For that purpose, some meteorological parameters, physical-geographical factors and the flood events data were studied for the 1994–2019 period. The linear trends demonstrate an increasing tendency of air temperature and precipitation. Those trends expressed increased flood occurrences, especially for the 2000s, whereas the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test reveals no significant change. The number of flood events reaches its maximum in 2011 with its peak in May. Out of 191 flood events, half of the occurrences are recorded in the flat areas and southern aspects of the mountains (22% of the country's territory). There is a certain clustering of flood events in the areas with up to 5° slopes (66% of flood events). The most flood vulnerable areas were analyzed and mapped via Geographical Information System (GIS). The GIS-based mapping shows the location of flood vulnerable areas in the central, northern parts of the country, and the coastal areas of Lake Sevan. Our methodological approach elaborates the localization of flood-prone sites. It can be used for the flood hazard assessment mapping and risk management.
Highlights
Natural hazards are physical events that can cause significant damage to the natural and human environment
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC ), climate change is mainly described by air temperature and precipitation changes
Those two factors were taken as key parameters which showed the climate change and could influence the flood formation processes
Summary
Natural hazards are physical events that can cause significant damage to the natural and human environment. A great percentage of the global population lives in the floodplain. This clarifies why millions of people are affected by floods (Kaya et al ). In urban or rural areas, floods are considered among the most dangerous natural hazards due to their increasing recurrence. Their consequences are environmental but social and economic as well since they may damage urban areas, agricultural lands and even result in fatal accidents (Merz et al )
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