Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Population Aging in Rural China

Abstract

(1) Background: Population aging has been accelerating in China since the 1990s, and the number of people over 65 reached 190 million in 2020. However, the spatial distribution of the aged is not homogeneous; in rural areas, the aged population accounted for 17.72% of the total population, whereas in urban areas, it accounted for 11.11%, which is 6.61 p.p. less. Therefore, this study aims to examine the spatial heterogeneity and influencing factors of population aging in rural China from 2000 to 2020. (2) Methods: First, Getis-Ord Gi* was used to analyze the spatial clustering of the aged population in rural China. Then, standard deviational ellipse was used to characterize the temporal trend of the spatial clustering of population aging in rural China. Finally, potential influencing factors that could have contributed to the spatial-temporal patterns were analyzed using a novel spatial statistical package "Geographical Detector". (3) Results: (a). Aging in rural populations increased and occurred throughout China from 2000 to 2020. (b). The spatial patterns of aging in China are roughly divided by the Hu Line, which is the population density boundary of China. (c). The mean center of the aged population tended to orient around a northeast-to-southwest major axis over the past 20 years, contrary to the internal migration pattern that flows from north to south. (d). The population age structure, longevity rate, and fertility rate were the predominant factors of aging in rural areas. (4) Conclusions: As the aged population is rapidly increasing in rural areas in China in a spatially heterogeneous fashion, governments and private sectors need to collaborate to alleviate the problem.